Week Ahead
What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: November 29th
November 29, 2010 by James K Barath, CMPS® · Leave a Comment

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During the Thanksgiving holiday shortened week, both stocks and bond market were extra volatile due to lackluster volume.
For mortgage bonds it meant three positive days and one bad day. The one bad day unfortunately was one of the Top 10 worst days for mortgage bonds in 2010. The one bad day resulted with mortgage rates increasing for the 4th consecutive week.
Although there are no economic reports today, the financial markets are staying focused on the geo-political unrest in Southeast Asia and financial woes that are being addressed in Europe. They are also keeping a close eye on the end results from both Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Economic reports for the week begin on Tuesday with the Chicago PMI, which is also known as the Business Barometer, and Consumer Confidence for November.
On Wednesday, the ADP National Employment Report will be released. Analysts estimate that 58,000 jobs will have been added by nonfarm private payrolls in the month of November. This will be followed on Thursday with the weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
The ISM Index will also be published on Wednesday and will provide the single most important reading on the health of the manufacturing sector nationwide. Not to be left out on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be released with little fan fare.
Thursday will be of importance for the real estate industry as Pending Home Sales try to get back on track. At a minimal the report is expected to show neither an increase nor a decrease from the prior months report.
Friday once again will end with a bang as Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Hourly Earnings and Average Work Week will be released. Guesstimates are for the creation of 130,00 jobs. Although 130,000 jobs is not the turn around for the economy, it can be a good sustainable start so long as the prior months employment numbers do not get revised downward.
If you are in the home loan process and have a weak stomach, call today and lock-in your home loan rate.
This is What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: November 29th.
Quick general rule of thumb when keeping an eye on mortgage rates.
Strong Economic News: $$$ from Bonds —> Stocks = Home Loan Rates Worsen
Weak Economic News: $$$ from Stocks —> Bonds = Home Loan Rates Improve
Want to see what other economic reports might impact home buyers and home refinance options in the coming week? Visit the Mortgage Market Update and check out the Economic Calendar.
Week Ahead
What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: November 22nd
November 22, 2010 by James K Barath, CMPS® · 1 Comment
We may have a holiday shortened week ahead, but the markets will be filled with plenty of action. The Treasury will be buying $99 Billion in 2, 5 and 7-Year Notes on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
Economic reports for the week begin on Tuesday with the Gross Domestic Product Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity, and also the Existing Home Sales Report.
Also on Tuesday, the “Meeting Minutes” from the Fed’s most recent meeting on November 2-3 will be released.
On Wednesday, we’ll have a virtual feast of economic reports just ahead of Thanksgiving. We’ll get another round of housing news with the New Home Sales Report, plus another read on the economy with the Durable Goods Report, which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big-ticket items that are designed to last for an extended period of time.
Not to be left out, there will be jobs news on Wednesday via the Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims numbers, and inflation news via the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which happens to be the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation.
Financial markets will be closed all day on Thursday in honor of the Thanksgiving holiday, while on Friday the Stock and Bond markets will close early, at 12:00 p.m. CDT and 1:00 p.m. CDT respectively. I wish you and your loved ones a safe, happy, and fun Thanksgiving!
This is What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: November 22nd
Quick general rule of thumb when keeping an eye on mortgage rates.
Strong Economic News: $$$ from Bonds —> Stocks = Home Loan Rates Worsen
Weak Economic News: $$$ from Stocks —> Bonds = Home Loan Rates Improve
Want to see what other economic reports might impact home buyers and home refinance options in the coming week? Visit the Mortgage Market Update and check out the Economic Calendar.
Do you want to avoid the hectic shopping spree the day after Thanksgiving better known as Black Friday? If yes, check out the Mortgage Market Guide View to learn about 5 Inexpensive, Easy-to-Purchase Gifts.
Week Ahead
What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: November 15th
November 15, 2010 by James K Barath, CMPS® · 1 Comment
“Inflation is when you pay $15 for the $10 haircut you used to get for $5 when you had hair.” – Sam Ewing
After a relatively slow schedule of economic reports last week, we’ll see some big reports over the next few days with the potential to really move the markets.
We started off right away this morning with the Retail Sales report for October as well as a dose of manufacturing news in the Empire State Index, which looks at New York State’s manufacturing sector, and is a good gauge of manufacturing overall. On Thursday, we’ll also see the Philadelphia Fed Index, which is another important manufacturing report.
Those two indices have the potential to impact the market, since they indicate the health of the manufacturing sector in the US. Even more big news is headed our way on Tuesday with the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation at the wholesale level.
Then, the very next day on Wednesday morning, we’ll see the Consumer Price Index (CPI) with a look at inflation at the consumer level. In light of last week’s news and the information described above, it will be important to see what these reports reveal – since inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan rates.
Wednesday will also bring more housing industry news with reports on the number of Housing Starts and Building Permits in October.
The week of reports caps off on Thursday with the Initial Jobless Claims report. Last week’s report indicated that Initial Jobless Claims fell in the latest week to the lowest reading since July. Continuing Jobless Claims also moved lower. While those numbers showed modest improvements and are steps in the right direction, there is still a lot of wood to chop where jobs are concerned.
This is What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: November 15th.
Quick general rule of thumb when keeping an eye on mortgage rates.
Strong Economic News: $$$ from Bonds —> Stocks = Home Loan Rates Worsen
Weak Economic News: $$$ from Stocks —> Bonds = Home Loan Rates Improve
Want to see what other economic reports might impact home buyers and home refinance options in the coming week? Visit the Mortgage Market Update and check out the Economic Calendar.
Have things begun to pile up in your house? If you feel overwhelmed and don’t know where to start, check out the Mortgage Market Guide View to learn the Financial Benefits of Decluttering.
Week Ahead
What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: November 8th
November 8, 2010 by James K Barath, CMPS® · Leave a Comment
After all last week’s big news, Traders will continue to digest all the happenings and will have a somewhat quiet economic news week ahead, including the Bond Market being closed on Thursday in honor of Veteran’s Day.
There are no major economic reports until Wednesday, which will bring another look at employment with the Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims Report. Last week’s Initial Jobless Claims were 457,000, above the 445,000 that was expected, while Continuing Jobless Claims fell 42,000 to 4.34 Million. Initial Jobless Claims have been stuck to that mid-400’s level like a magnet for a very long time – and a real, sustained movement below 400,000 is needed in order for the market to feel confident that labor is recovering.
Also this week we’ll get a read on Consumer Sentiment on Friday – always an important number, but particularly of note for retailers, especially as we head into the holiday shopping season.
Bonds and home loan rates had some ups and downs last week in response to the Federal Reserves Quantitative Easing (QE2) announcement and the Jobs Report. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the volatility as this week progresses.
This is What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: November 8th.
Quick general rule of thumb when keeping an eye on mortgage rates.
Strong Economic News: $$$ from Bonds —> Stocks = Home Loan Rates Worsen
Weak Economic News: $$$ from Stocks —> Bonds = Home Loan Rates Improve
Want to see what other economic reports might impact home buyers and home refinance options in the coming week? Visit the Mortgage Market Update and check out the Economic Calendar.
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Week Ahead
What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: November 1st
November 1, 2010 by James K Barath, CMPS® · 2 Comments
Put on your seatbelt – it will be an exciting week ahead! We will see the midterm elections this Tuesday, the FOMC Meeting and following Monetary Policy Statement coming on Wednesday, and the all-important Jobs Report on Friday.
On their own – each one would have the ability to create volatility in the financial markets… but having all three in a row certainly spells an exciting and interesting week ahead. I’ll be staying closely tuned – and we’ll break down all the events in next week’s issue.
In addition to those three big events, we’ll see economic reports on Personal Spending, Personal Income, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – which measures price changes in consumer goods and services – on Monday.
We’ll also see some important employment news leading up to the official Jobs Report on Friday. First up is the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday, which measures nonfarm private employment. That will be followed the next day with another round of Initial Jobless Claims.
In last week’s report, Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 434,000, which marked the third straight decrease in Claims and the lowest level since early July. That was definitely an improved number… but we can’t get too euphoric until we see the Initial Jobless Claims reaching the 400,000 mark and steadily moving lower from there.
And as if that weren’t enough excitement for the week, we’ll see more housing news with Pending Home Sales on Friday. Regardless of what these economic reports say, it’s bound to be a roller coaster ride with all the big news items on tap – contact me this week if you have any questions about how home loan rates are moving.
This is What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: November 1st.
Quick general rule of thumb when keeping an eye on mortgage rates.
Strong Economic News: $$$ from Bonds —> Stocks = Home Loan Rates Worsen
Weak Economic News: $$$ from Stocks —> Bonds = Home Loan Rates Improve
Want to see what other economic reports might impact home buyers and home refinance options in the coming week? Visit the Mortgage Market Update and check out the Economic Calendar.
Are you finding it more difficult to save? Do you want to know practical and effective strategies to spending less and keeping more? Check out the Mortgage Market Guide View for The Top 10 Ways to Save.
Week Ahead
What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: September 20th
September 20, 2010 by James K Barath, CMPS® · Leave a Comment
Step outside in any community in Northwest Indiana and it is evident that the season is changing. You could also look at the calendar and see that fall is on our doorstep.
The first day of fall, also known as the Autumnal Equinox, is Wednesday, September 22, 2010. It is on this day that there will be a balance between day and night. There will be a natural equilibrium.
Why is the Autumnal Equinox important to mortgage rates?
The Autumnal Equinox has historically signaled the high point for the stock market and turning point for market prices and events. This would normally be a time to rejoice for mortgage bond traders and mortgage rate shoppers. However, in a year that trends have been and need to be broken there is a silent hesitancy on wall street.
Although Mother Nature has her role in world economy, analysts will be paying more attention to the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday. Decision makers will be listening to every word and analyzing every change to the Fed’s Monetary Policy and Rate Decision.
Other key economic reports out this week will include several real estate and housing market specific reports. The first two reports will be August’s Housing Starts and Building Permits on Tuesday. Existing Home Sales report will be announced on Thursday followed up by New Home Sales report on Friday.
Employment talk will take its weekly role with Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday. There is still disbelief in the improved numbers reported by the Labor Department; nonetheless, continued decline in the weekly claims could add fuel to the stock market rally.
Finally, the last significant report of the week will be August’s Durable Goods Orders, which is a leading indicator of future manufacturing demands. Unfortunately, it has not been very accurate of late.
The good new is home loan rates are still at historically great levels for home buyers or homeowners looking to refinance. Just remember that it can’t last forever. Don’t lose your chance at historic savings, act today.
This is What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: September 20th.
Quick general rule of thumb when keeping an eye on mortgage rates.
Strong Economic News: $$$ from Bonds —> Stocks = Home Loan Rates Worsen
Weak Economic News: $$$ from Stocks —> Bonds = Home Loan Rates Improve
Want to see what other economic reports might impact home buyers and home refinance options in the coming week? Visit the Mortgage Market Update and check out the Economic Calendar.
It’s that time of year again! The start of a new school year means the beginning of school fundraisers and donation requests. Although their intentions are good, they can be tough on your home budget. Check out the Mortgage Market Guide View for tips on how to handle all those requests.
Week Ahead
What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: September 13th
September 13, 2010 by James K Barath, CMPS® · Leave a Comment
Last week was a tumultuous week for mortgage rate shoppers as the mortgage bond market sold off in the wake of better than forecasted August Jobs Report and Consumer Confidence. In matter of fact, it took less than 48 hours for mortgage rates to increase nearly 0.250% as money from the bond market transitioned to equities in the stock market.
Although mortgage rates did rise last week, homeowners and home buyers still have access to some of the lowest mortgage rates in recorded history. As the economy improves money will continue to move back to the stock market at the expense of higher mortgage rates. Historic low mortgage rates are only good if you seize it; otherwise, it is just small talk.
Following a weekend of tributes and remembrance to all those who were injured, lost their lives, or lost loved ones on September 11, 2001, this week has begun subdued. The stock market will be the big influence today on mortgage rates.
Market volatility will begin to heat up starting Tuesday. The Retail Sales Report will be released tomorrow and could move mortgage rates higher if it comes in better than forecasts.
Wednesday will be focused on the manufacturing sector with the release of the Empire State Index, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. In months past, these reports have been uneventful.
Fireworks are sure to fly on Thursday and Friday as inflation talk will be the buzz topic of every media outlet. The Producer Price Index and Philadelphia Index will be reported on Thursday. Consumer Price Index and Consumer Sentiment Index will be released on Friday.
Let’s not forget the weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report on Thursday. Analysts and traders will be paying particular attention to see if the weekly trend is still improving and if the Continuing Claims remain steady.
This is What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: September 13th.
Quick general rule of thumb when keeping an eye on mortgage rates.
Strong Economic News: $$$ from Bonds —> Stocks = Home Loan Rates Worsen
Weak Economic News: $$$ from Stocks —> Bonds = Home Loan Rates Improve
Want to see what other economic reports might impact home buyers and home refinance options in the coming week? Visit the Mortgage Market Update and check out the Economic Calendar.
Buying a house? The last thing you want is to buy more house than you can really afford. Check out the Mortgage Market Guide View for a simple formula that can help you calculate which home to buy.
Week Ahead
What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: August 23rd
August 23, 2010 by James K Barath, CMPS® · 4 Comments
If you’re a fan of cliff diving, last week was your week. It was full of economic reports that took a nose dive for the real estate industry, mortgage markets and the overall economy.
Mortgage bonds and mortgage rates took a beating while all ears were listening to hear the outcome and recommendations of the “Future of Housing Finance” conference last Tuesday. At the end of the day, the majority of opinions agreed to the fact that government still needs to be involved in the housing market in the form of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA.
In other real estate specific news, not only did the NAHB Housing Market Index fall short of estimates, so did housing starts and building permits. These combined reports proved that the housing tax credit may have done more harm than good to the housing industry.
Although the manufacturing indexes showed signs of improvement, the fact that Initial Claims came in well above expectations drew skepticism about the health of the employment markets. Furthermore, the buzz has begun about a second dip in the economy if new jobs are not created. Jobs is extremely important to the economy and the recovery of home values.
Highlights for this week’s news will be the Existing Home Sales Report on Tuesday and the New Home Sales Report on Wednesday. These two reports will either confirm the dismal state of the housing industry post-homebuyer tax credit or show a new spark for the real estate industry.
Durable Goods Report will be released on Wednesday and the all important Gross Domestic Product Report on Friday. Collectively, these two reports will provide greater detail on economic activity and specifically in which direction the economy is heading.
The report that has garnished the most weekly attention will be released on Thursday….Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims Report. As the summer comes to an end, will the seasonal employment surge now become a major drag on any potential recovery. The lack of jobs still is a big key to real estate.
This is What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: August 23rd.
Quick general rule of thumb when keeping an eye on mortgage rates.
Strong Economic News: $$$ from Bonds —> Stocks = Home Loan Rates Worsen
Weak Economic News: $$$ from Stocks —> Bonds = Home Loan Rates Improve
Want to see what other economic reports might impact home buyers and home refinance options in the coming week? Visti the Mortgage Market Update and check out the Economic Calendar.
Buying a house? The last thing you want is an unsuccessful closing. Check out the Mortgage Market Guide View for some tips that will help ensure your home buying experience moves in the right direction.
Week Ahead
What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: August 16th
August 16, 2010 by James K Barath, CMPS® · Leave a Comment
In case you missed it. The Federal Open Market Committee met last week to discuss the overall state of the economy and reassess their monetary policy. At the end of the day, the Federal Reserve voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 – 0.250%.
This news was a temporary boost to mortgage bonds and helped mortgage rates decline initially. Unfortunately, by weeks end the mortgage bond market was on their heels despite all the bad headline economic reports last week. One would have expected for home loan rates to decline further.
What exactly happened? The Federal Reserve created a little ambuiguity in their FOMC Statement Press Release and investors worldwide were uncertain as to where they should shift their money.
Last week all eyes were on Ben Bernanke and the gang. Technicals were set aside for interpretive analysis.
This week mortgage rates will be driven by technical economic reports, which include: Empire State Index; Producer Price Index & Core Producer Price Index (PPI); Capacity Utilization; and Philadelphia Fed Index.
The Philadelphia Fed Index is by far the most important report of the week. It’s release on Thursday coupled with today’s Empire State Index will provide insight into the manufacturing sector moving forward.
In real estate specific news, the housing industry will be on the lookout for two economic reports tomorrow. July’s Housing Starts and Building Permits will help clarify which direction the real estate market is heading now that the home buyer tax credit is no longer an influence. Will new construction continue to languish or will the two reports show new signs of a real estate recovery? Stay tuned.
This is What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: August 16th.
Quick general rule of thumb when keeping an eye on mortgage rates.
Strong Economic News: $$$ from Bonds —> Stocks = Home Loan Rates Worsen
Weak Economic News: $$$ from Stocks —> Bonds = Home Loan Rates Improve
Want to see what other economic reports might impact home buyers and home refinance options in the coming week? Visti the Mortgage Market Update and check out the Economic Calendar.



