Unemployment Rate

Home Affordability Threatened By Friday’s Jobs Report

This week, once more, we find mortgage rates are on a downward trajectory. Conforming mortgage rates have returned to near all-time lows. After Friday morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, however, those low rates may come to an end.

It’s a risky time for Indiana and Illinois home buyers and would-be refinancers to be without a locked rate.

Each month, on the first Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report for the month prior. More commonly called the “jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls provides a sector-by-sector employment breakdown, and the nation’s Unemployment Rate.

In December 2011, the government reported 200,000 net new jobs created, and an Unemployment Rate of 8.5%.

For January 2012, economists project 135,000 net new jobs with no change in the Unemployment Rate and, depending on how accurate those predictions are proved, FHA and conforming mortgage rates for homes in Northwest Indiana and Chicago Illinois are subject to change. The monthly jobs reports tends to have an out-sized influence on the direction of daily mortgage rates.

The connection between jobs and mortgage rates is fairly direct.

Job growth is a key cog in the economic growth engine and mortgage rates change daily based on short- and long-term economic expectation. As more people join the workforce, economic expectations change; the economy tends to expand, breeding optimism among investment. When this occurs, it often spurs investment in the stock market, which tends to leads mortgage rates up.

In short, in a recovering economy, when job growth is strong, all things equal, mortgage rates rise. Home affordability suffers.

So, for today’s rate shoppers, Friday’s job report represents a risk. The economy has added jobs over 15 straight months, a streak that’s added 2.1 million people to the workforce. Although the jobs market remains weak and well off its peaks from last decade, a 15-month streak is worth watching. More jobs means more income earned nationwide, more money spent by households, and more taxes collected by governments.

This items build a foundation for economic growth and Wall Street is watching.

If tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls shows more jobs created than the estimated 135,000, mortgage rates are expected to rise. If the jobs figures falls short, mortgage rates should fall.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report is released at 7:30 AM CT.

Unemployment Rate

Are You Locked? Friday’s Job Report Will Make Mortgage Rates Move

If you’re floating a mortgage rate, or have yet to lock one in, today may be a good day to call your loan officer. Friday morning, the government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report at 8:30 AM ET.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report is more commonly called the “jobs report“ and, lately, it’s been Wall Street’s domestic economic metric of choice. As jobs go, so go markets.

In the 12 months beginning November 2007, the economy shed 2.3 million on its way to losing more than 7 million jobs by the end of 2009.

It’s no coincidence that the stock market has been wayward. Jobs are a keystone in the U.S. economy and the connection between jobs and growth is straight-forward :

1. Workers spend more than non-workers and consumer spending is the economy’s largest single component 
2. Workers pay more taxes to governments and, when governments have money, they build and spend on projects 
3. Additional consumer and government spending creates revenue for businesses which, in turn, hire more workers.

It’s a self-reinforcing cycle. More employees begets more employees.

As a rate shopper in Indiana, this is an important understanding. Job loss was, in part, behind the big drop in mortgage rates since 2007. A weak economy drives investors away from equities and into safer securities such as mortgage bonds (which are backed by the U.S. government).

The excess demand causes mortgage rates to drop and that’s exactly what we’ve seen. Since late-2007, mortgage rates have been in decline.

In the first 11 months of 2011, though, 1.5 million people went back to work; the economy showed signs of shoring up and economic optimism is returning. Mortgage markets have temporarily ceded to the Eurozone, but with one more strong jobs report to close out the year, momentum could tip and stock markets could roll.

If that happens, mortgage rates will rise. Maybe by a lot.

This is why Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data is so important. Economists expect that 150,000 new jobs were created in December. If the government’s actual number is larger than that, prepare for higher mortgage rates.

Conversely, if job creation falls short of 150,000, mortgage rates may fall.

If the prospect of rising mortgage rates makes you nervous, remove your nerves from the equation. Call your loan officer and lock your rate ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release.

Unemployment Rate

Obama’s Right. Jobs Report Wasn’t As Bad As The Headlines

In June, for the first time since December 2009, the U.S. workforce shrank.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy shed 125,000 jobs last month even as the Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.5 percent. The drop in the Unemployment Rate is being attributed to fewer Americans looking for work.

At first glance, the jobs report looks weak but a deeper look shows something different.

Excluding the 225,000 government Census workers that recently left the workforce, the total number of employed persons actually grew by 83,000 in June. That’s 50,000 more working Americans as compared to May.

And, since the start of the year, the U.S. workforce has grown by 857,000.

Jobs growth is closely tied to economic growth because more working Americans means more disposable income which, in turn, stokes consumer spending. Job growth is better than job loss.

Consumer spending makes up the majority of the U.S. economy so as consumer spending grows, investor mentality tends to shifts toward “return on principal” (i.e. stock markets) from “safety of principal” (i.e. bond markets).

A move like this is often bad for home affordability because falling demand for bonds is tied to higher mortgage rates. In addition, demand for homes is likely to increase with the growing number of Americans earning a paycheck. Thereby helping to push home prices higher.

The June jobs report therefore should be bad for rate shoppers and home buyers in Valparaiso Indiana. Fortunately, the markets aren’t reacting that way. Mortgage rates for now are slightly improved since the jobs report’s release.

Perhaps Wall Street is watching the wrong figures, but don’t let that be your loss. If you’re shopping for a mortgage, a home, or both, now may be your best time while rates are still low and with home prices down. Make a move before traders change their tune and you lose your window of opportunity.

Unemployment Rate

Jobs Report Gives Temporary Boost To Home Affordability

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls data from the month prior. 

The release is more commonly called “the jobs report” — a major factor in mortgage rates and monthly payments.

Especially now.

With the recession officially over and growth returning to the U.S. economy, the recovery’s next frontier is jobs. As job growth increases, home affordability should take a hit.  Here’s why:

1. As the number of working Americans increases, so should total consumer spending
2. As consumer spending increases, so should a return to risk-taking on Wall Street
3. As risk-taking returns to Wall Street, bond markets should start to lose

Mortgage rates, therefore, should rise.

Furthermore, as the jobs market stabilizes and recovers, renters should be more apt to buy their first home, and homeowners should be apt to up-size.  More home buyers in Munster Indiana means more competition for homes and higher home prices typically follow.

Job growth can be trickle-up for housing.

Today, however, the jobs data was not so strong. According to the government, 431,000 jobs were created in May, but of those new jobs, 95.4% represented temporary staffing for the 2010 Census.  The number of private-sector jobs created fell well short of expectations and Wall Street is voting with its dollars right now.  Mortgage bonds are gaining so, therefore, rates are falling.

The May 2010 jobs report may not reflect well on the economy, but home affordability in Indiana and around the country is improving because of it.

Unemployment Rate

April’s Jobs Report Ironically Good for Mortgage Rates

On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

More commonly called “the jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls is a major market mover. The number of working Americans is directly tied to the health of the economy which, in turn, drives the stock and bond markets.

In general, when jobs numbers improve, it’s good for stocks and bad for mortgage bonds. It follows, therefore, that conforming mortgage rates in Chicago Illinois rise because rates always move opposite of mortgage bond prices.

Conversely, when jobs numbers worsen, it tends to be bad for stocks and good for mortgage bonds.  Mortgage rates fall.

Today, markets are behaving a bit differently.

Despite 290,000 jobs created in April 2010 — nearly twice the expected amount — and a 40 percent upward revision of March’s numbers, mortgage rates are essentially unchanged. 

In a normal environment, rates would be higher.  Today is not normal.

Today is a departure because, for all of the jobs report’s import to Wall Street, it’s less important to markets than what’s happening in Greece right now.

Greece is struggling to meet its debt obligations and its citizens are rioting.

Until a debt solution for Greece is made that sticks, unrest in the region will drive safe haven buying both domestically and abroad. U.S. mortgage bonds will gain on that movement because mortgage bonds are “safe”, and mortgage rates will fall.

Indeed, this is exactly what’s been happening since the start of April. Mortgage markets have been rallying for 5 weeks.

So, today’s jobs news is terrific for the economy and mortgage rates should be rising because of it.  But, they’re not. Consider taking advantage — lock in your home loan rate.

Unemployment Rate

January Jobs Report Key to Mortgage Rates & Home Prices

On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls data from the month prior. The data is more commonly known as “the jobs report” and it swings a big stick on Wall Street.

Especially now — many analysts believe job growth is tightly linked to the future of the U.S. economy.

Therefore, when January’s jobs report hits the wires at 8:45 AM ET tomorrow, home buyers in Northwest Indiana would do well to pay attention. A net job reading that is much higher (or lower) than Wall Street’s expectations can make a serious change in home affordability in Chesterton, Crown Point, Highland, Munster, Portage, Saint John, Schererville and Valparaiso.

Wall Street expects that the economy added 13,000 jobs last month.  It would mark the second time in 3 months that the jobs report showed a net monthly gain.

In November 2008, the economy added 4,000.

Jobs matter to the economy for a lot of reasons, but one of the biggest is that when Americans are working, Americans are buying and consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the economy.

Job growth spurs the economy and draws money to the stock market. Unfortunately for rate shoppers in Northwest Indiana, that kind of stock market growth happens at the expense of the bond market which is where mortgage rates are made.

Good jobs data usually means higher mortgage rates.

Also, job growth can lead to higher home prices. This is because working homeowners are less likely to default on a mortgage versus non-working homeowners.  In this way, job growth helps hold foreclosures to a minimum which, in turn, suppresses the housing supply.

Less supply means higher prices for home buyers in Northwest Indiana.

Mortgage rates are idling this morning in advance of tomorrow’s data.  If you’re shopping for a mortgage rate in Northwest Indiana, the prudent play may be to lock your rate before the jobs data is released.  A jobs figure that’s higher than the 13,000 expected could cause rate to rise sharply.

Contact Benchmark Mortgage in Northwest Indiana to Qualify for Your FREE FHA Home Loan Approval Today!

Unemployment Rate

Jobs Report Wasn’t All Bad – Mortgage Rates Did Fall

Despite the headlines, it’s important to remember that December’s jobs report wasn’t all bad news. 

Sure, the economy shed 85,000 jobs last month and the Unemployment Rate failed to dip below 10%, but for home buyers and rate shoppers , the news was just fine.

The soft employment data led mortgage rates lower, making homes more affordable for buyers.

There is two sides to every economic coin.

Since early-2008, the U.S workforce has been closely tied to home financing. As the economy slowed and jobs were lost, Wall Streeters pulled money from the risky stock markets and moved it to of the relative safety of bond markets, instead.

Safe haven buying led mortgage bond prices higher which, in turn, caused rates to fall. Mortgage rates fell to 6 all-time lows in 2009. In a related statistic, 4.2 million jobs were lost last year.

And this is why Friday’s non-farm payrolls report was so good for buyers.

See, in November, the economy added new jobs for the first time since 2007, housing looked strong, consumer confidence was growing.  The safe haven buying reversed and mortgage rates took off.  Analysts believed the nation’s economic turnaround was complete.

But now, after December’s jobs report returned to the red, Wall Street is forced to rethink its position. Safe haven buying is back and mortgage rates are lower because of it.

Over the next few months, expect a lot of this back-and-forth action in rates. In general, positive news for the economy will be met with higher mortgage rates and negative economic news will be met with lower mortgage rates.  There will be exceptions, but the general rule should hold.

Need more expert advice? Ask the team of Certified Mortgage Planning Specialists at Benchmark Mortgage.

Unemployment Rate

Falling Unemployment Rate = Higher Mortgage Rates

This morning’s jobs report is causing mortgage rates to rise, capping a week during which rates have already jumped 3/8 percent off all-time lows.

The government’s November Non-Farm Payrolls report reinforced the notion that the recession is nearly over, if not over already.

Just 11,000 jobs were lost last month – much fewer than analysts had expected – as the Unemployment Rate fell to 10.0%.

If it seems strange to be talking economic recovery while Americans are still losing jobs - 7.2 million since 2008 -  remember that data always needs context.

See, analysts view employment figures as a lagging indicator for the economy.  This is because business owners tend to make hiring decisions based on how business has been - not on how it will be at some point in the future.

The jobs report rarely reflects the “right now”.  As an example, job loss peaked in January 2009 - 4 months after the height of the financial crisis. 

We saw the same pattern during the Recession of 2001. 

According to government data, during the last recession, job loss peaked in October 2001 but the recession ended the very next month.  It wasn’t until October 2002 that employment went net positive on a monthly basis.

And this is why investors are cheering November’s jobs report. Better-than-expected numbers and a falling Unemployment Rate show that the economy is improving.

Unfortunately for rate shoppers, better-than-expected data is pushing mortgage rates higher.  Rates have opened 0.250% higher versus yesterday’s close.

Need more expert advice? Ask the team of Certified Mortgage Planning Specialists at Benchmark Mortgage.

Unemployment Rate

July Jobs Data Is Weak, But Strong Enough To Sock Mortgage Rates

This morning’s jobs report is doing a number on mortgage rates, putting another dent in home affordability nationwide.

Despite the slightly flat Unemployment Rate, the government’s July Non-Farm Payrolls report reinforced the notion that the recession may be ending soon, if it hasn’t already.

Just 247,000 jobs were lost last month — much fewer than analysts had expected.

Now, if it seems strange to be talking economic recovery while Americans are still losing jobs — 5.7 million in the last 12 months, in fact — remember that we have to take the data in context.

Job loss doesn’t lead to economic growth, per se, but analysts tend to treat employment data as a lagging indicator.  Business is often slow to hire and slow to fire, so the jobs report rarely reflects the “right now”.

A terrific real-world example of jobs data as a lagging indicator is that the peak of recent job loss — January 2009 — occurred 4 months after the peak of the financial crisis in September 2008.

The same pattern was present during the Recession of 2001. 

Government data shows that job loss peaked during the recession in October 2001, 1 month before the recession’s official end.  Meanwhile, job losses continued nationwide for the next year and didn’t turn net positive until October 2002 — nearly 12 months into the recession’s subsequent recovery.

This is what we mean by lagging indicator and it’s why investors are cheering today’s jobs data.  Strength in today’s report may be signaling the end of the recession. 

Unfortunately for today’s rate shoppers, it pushing mortgage rates higher.  As stock markets soar, bond markets sink.

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