Pending Home Sales

Pending Home Sales Tank, Actual Home Sales Should Rise

Fewer homes went under contract in January as the housing market continues to limp through the winter months.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell to its lowest level in 3 quarters this January. By contrast, in October 2009, the index had touched a 3-year high.

The Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of homes that have gone under contract to sell, but have yet to close nationwide. It’s compiled using data from more than 100 regional listing services and 60-plus brokerages  — the sample set encompasses 20 percent of all home resales in a given month.

Economists have come to rely on the Pending Home Sales Index because of its high correlation to actual home sales. 80% of all home marked “pending” close within 60 days. Many of the rest close within 120.

Therefore, when we see Pending Home Sales show weakness like it did in January, we can infer that home resales will remain weak through the spring.

But will they really?

1. Fewer sales should drag down home prices, bringing more buyers into the market
2. Mortgage rates are still very low, but are poised to rise in just a few weeks
3. The home buyer tax credit requires buyers to be in contract by April 30, 2010

In other words, there’s a confluence of factors that could lead to a rush of sales around the country over the next two months, reversing the housing market’s recent momentum.

Contact James K Barath in Northwest Indiana to Qualify for Your FREE FHA Home Loan Approval Today!

Pending Home Sales

Pending Home Sales Up – Stronger Spring Market Ahead

The Pending Home Sales Index rose slightly in December, climbing 1 percent from November.

A Pending Home Sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but not yet sold. It’s a figure compiled by the National Association of Realtors® using sales data from over 100 regional listing services and more than 60 large brokerages around the country.

Because each pending sale is a true measure of sales activity, the Pending Home Sales Index is purported to be the most reliable forward-looking indicator for housing in Northwest Indiana.

Recent data supports this hypothesis.

After Pending Home Sales plunged 16 percent in November, Existing Home Sales fell by 17 percent in December.  Based on the most recent Pending Sales Index, therefore, we can expect January’s closed sales to be similarly level.

For home buyers in Chesterton, Crown Point, Highland, Munster, Portage, Saint John, Schererville and Valparaiso , this is all a bit of good news. Home prices are based on the supply-and-demand balance that exists between buyers and sellers in Northwest Indiana.  When buyers outnumber sellers, like they did through most of 2009, home supplies dip and, in fact, the national home inventory nearly halved during the 12 months ending November 2009.

With fewer homes for sale, multiple-offer situations were commonplace and home values rose as result.

Activity has since slowed, however, and fewer buyers are in today’s market. The supply-and-demand equation has shifted back some. In December, home supplies rose for the first time in 7 months and January will likely show the same.

The net result: Home buyers have more homes from which to choose and that can create negotiation leverage for better prices and better concessions.

With mortgage rates still low in Northwest Indiana and a looming deadline on the homebuyer’s tax credit, market activity should be strong between now and April.   Take your time and bid right. And when you’re ready, be ready. The best deals likely won’t last.

Contact Benchmark Mortgage in Northwest Indiana to Qualify for Your FREE FHA Home Loan Approval Today!

Pending Home Sales

Home Buyers Get Green Light as Pending Home Sales Plunge

Just one month after touching a 3-year high, the National Association of Realtors® Pending Home Sales index plunged in November.  A “pending” home sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but has yet to close.

The 16 percent drop marks the first retreat in Pending Home Sales since January of last year.

The weak Pending Home Sales data is an indication that Existing Home Sales data will be soft this month. This is because, historically, 80 percent of Pending Home Sales convert to “closed sales” within 60 days, and most of the rest close within 120.

With Pending Home Sales down, the housing market should lose some of its momentum.  For today’s home buyers, this kind of slack can represent a terrific opportunity.

Home prices are a function of supply and demand; of buyers and sellers. When buyers outnumber sellers, competition leads to bidding wars, ultimately, and higher home prices overall.  The imbalance can also create a sense of urgency that results in over-paying for a home.

When buyers are sparse, on the other hand, the psychology of real estate shifts. 

Home sellers are keenly aware of foot traffic and requests for second and third showings. Without buyers, their homes can’t sell.  They also note a lack of general feedback from the market.

It’s at this point that seller fear can creep in and it becomes a buyer’s best time to buy.

Based on November’s Pending Home Sales data, it’s clear that home sellers are in abundance right now.  Home buyers have leverage.

It may not last.

With mortgage rates easing lower this week, the federal home buyer tax credit still in effect, and the Holiday Season officially over, buyers are getting back to business everywhere. 

Plus, with the tax credit deadline of April 30, 2010 fast approaching, buyer activity should increase over the next 4-6 weeks.

The market looks ripe for a buy but don’t rush it.  Take your time and bid right. But when you’re ready, be ready – once the momentum shifts back to sellers, you might lose all that leverage you built up through the winter.

Need more expert advice? Ask the team of Certified Mortgage Planning Specialists at Benchmark Mortgage.

Pending Home Sales

Is Pending Home Sales an Omen to Higher Home Values

When a home seller accepts a contract on an MLS-listed property, the property’s status changes from “Active” to “Pending”.

This means the home is scheduled to sell, but not yet sold.

Each month, the National Association of Realtors® tallies the number of pending homes and publishes the data as the Pending Homes Sales Index report.

In October, for the 9th straight month, the index gained. It’s the longest such streak in Pending Home Sales history.

Because a “pending” home sale is just a contract between buyer and seller, it’s not as important to the economy as actual home sales.  However, the Pending Home Sales Index can be a fine predictor of future activity.

Historically, 80 percent of homes under contract “close” within 60 days, and most others close within 120 days. Recent Existing Home Sales data corroborates this.  Home sales activity is at its highest pace in nearly 3 years.

The Pending Home Sales Index does have some shortcomings, though:

1. It doesn’t account for newly constructed homes, a small but important part of the real estate market
2. It doesn’t track For Sale By Owner properties and other non-MLS listed homes
3. Its sample set is small, measuring just 20 percent of all MLS-listed sales

Despite this, however, Pending Home Sales is a terrific measure of real estate market strength.  Homes are going under contract at a dizzying pace. It’s thinning out home inventory supplies and pressuring prices to rise.

This chain reaction is what makes Pending Home Sales Index worth tracking. As the number of homes under contract increase, home prices can’t be far behind.

Need more expert advice? Ask the team of Certified Mortgage Planning Specialists at Benchmark Mortgage.

Pending Home Sales

Pending Home Sales Index Points to Higher Home Prices

The housing market continues to steam forward.

As reported by the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index posted its 8th consecutive monthly gain in September.

It’s the longest winning streak in the history of the index and Pending Home Sales are now at their highest levels since December 2006.

A Pending Home Sale is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.  It’s the precursor to an Existing Home Sale. 

Trade group data shows that nearly 80 percent of “pending” homes close within 2 months.  The majority of those remaining close within months 3 and 4.

When the Pending Home Sales Index rises, it tells us that market activity has picked up.  September’s data confirms what we’ve been noticing since February – the Buyers Market is ending.

With more homes under contract in the marketplace, homebuyers typically face one or more of the following:

   1. Competitive, multiple-offer situations
   2. Reduced purchase price leverage over sellers
   3. Fewer seller concessions

Therefore, if you’re buying a home in the next several months, know that the 8-month run in Pending Sales will lead to a run in closed sales.  It should result in higher home prices, too

Indeed, we’re already seeing it.

Need more expert advice? Ask the team of Certified Mortgage Planning Specialists at Benchmark Mortgage.

Pending Home Sales

Pending Homes Sales Gain for the 7th Straight Month

Buoyed by a generous tax credit, affordable homes, and low mortgage rates, the Pending Home Sales Index posted its seventh consecutive monthly gain in August.

It’s the longest winning streak in the index’s history and the highest reading in 2-1/2 years.

It’s also another signal that the housing market is in recovery.

“Pending home sales” are a forward-looking indicator, measuring the number homes under contract to sell, but not yet closed. 

Historically, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days.  Most others close within 120 days.

It’s no wonder home values are rising in so many markets.

Home buyers – take note.  If you’re planning to purchase a home between now and the New Year, expect that the recent run in pending sales will turn into run of closed sales which, in turn, should pump prices up and drop home inventory.

With mortgage rates hovering near 4-month lows, the best way to find a value in housing may be to act sooner rather than later.

Need more expert advice? Ask the team of Certified Mortgage Planning Specialists at Benchmark Mortgage.

Pending Home Sales

Why Home Prices Are Almost Certain To Rise This Fall

In what’s becoming a regular occurrence, housing data blew away economists expectations Tuesday.

As reported by the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index posted its 6th consecutive monthly gain in July.

After a meteoric rise that started in January, the index is now at its highest levels in more than 2 years.

A “pending home sale” is a home that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.  It’s not the same as an actual home sold, but data shows that nearly 80% of homes under contract close within 2 months and many more close in months 3 and 4.

Home buyers — take note.  When the Pending Home Sales Index is rising, it means that market activity has picked up.  This can lead to any one, or a combination, of the following:

1. Multiple-offer situations
2. Reduced negotiation leverage over sellers
3. Higher home sale prices with fewer concessions

So, consider yourself alerted.  If you’re buying a home in the next several months, expect the recent run in Pending Sales to lead to a run in closed sales, too.  That should lead home prices higher in most markets.

Indeed, we’re already seeing it.  Case-Shiller says prices are on the upswing.

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