HPI

Highest Year-Over-Year Increase In Home Prices Since 2005

March 5, 2014 by · Leave a Comment 

Highest Year-Over-Year Increase In Home Prices Since 2005Two major indicators of home price trends showed a slowing momentum for home prices in December.

The S&P Case Shiller 10 and 20 city indices reported that of 20 cities tracked, home prices were lower in December than for November.

Case-Shiller’s seasonally adjusted month-to month reading showed that home prices rose by 0.8 percent as compared to 0.90 percent in November.

David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that “Gains are slowing from month-to-month and the strongest part of home price recovery may be over.” He also noted that seasonally adjusted data was showing a loss of momentum for home prices.

December home prices posted a year-over-year gain of 13.40 percent, down from November’s year-over-year reading of 13.70 percent. December’s reading reflected the highest year-over-year increase in home prices since 2005.

Analysts note that a slower pace of increasing home prices may allow more buyers to enter the market, and may also encourage more buyers to list their properties for sale.

This would increase inventories of available homes and relieve pent-up demand for homes. Although home price growth is cooling off, average home prices remain 20 percent below their pre-recession peak in 2006.

Home Prices Face Challenges In 2014

Another factor in slower growth of home prices is regional differences in the rate of economic recovery. Cities including Dallas, Texas and Denver, Colorado recently set records for escalating home prices.

Five states including Florida and Michigan accounted for almost half of foreclosures completed during 2013. Slow job growth and poor winter weather were also blamed for slower gains in home prices.

New mortgage rules and relatively strict mortgage lending standards may continue to dampen housing markets, but there is some good news as some lenders are easing credit standards.

FHFA: Home Prices Higher For 10th Consecutive Quarter

The Federal Housing Finance Administration reported similar trends in December home price data for properties either financed or owned by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Home prices rose by a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.80 percent in December as compared to November’s reading.

Home prices were 7.70 percent higher for the fourth quarter of 2013 than for the same period in 2012. Adjusted for inflation, this reading indicates an approximate year-over-year increase of 7 percent.

FHFA reported higher readings for 38 states in its fourth quarter 2013 Home Price Index, as compared with 48 states in in the third quarter of 2013.  In order of home price appreciation, the top five states with highest growth in home prices were Nevada, California, Arizona, Oregon and Florida.

These calculations were seasonally adjusted and based on home purchases only.

WelcomeHomeNWI

WelcomeHomeNWI.com was created to demystify the national real estate headlines and to provide unbiased real estate trends and statistics relevant to Northwest Indiana. Our mission is facilitated through a collaboration of professionals who are dedicated to the Northwest Indiana real estate industry. Welcome Home NW Indiana! Welcome Home! WelcomeHomeNWI.com is Your Home for Real Estate and Mortgage News for the Best Communities in Northwest Indiana.

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HPI

Home Price Index Shows Home Values Rising Again

September 26, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Home Price Index from peak to presentTuesday, the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index (HPI) showed home values rising 0.2% on a seasonally-adjusted basis between June and July 2012, and moving +3.7% on an annual basis.

Home values have not dropped month-to-month since January of this year — a span of 6 months.

For today’s home buyers and sellers throughout Northwest Indiana and suburbs of Chicago Illinois, though, it’s important to recognize on what the HPI is actually reporting.

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Or, stated differently, on what the HPI is not reporting. The Home Price Index is based on home price changes of some homes, of certain “types”, with specific mortgage financing only.

As such, it excludes a lot of home sales from its results which skews the final product. We don’t know if home values are really up 0.2% this month — we only know that’s true for the home that the HPI chooses to track.

As an example of how certain homes are excluded, because the HPI is published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and because the FHFA gets its access to home price data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it’s upon data these two entities upon which the Home Price Index is built.

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Home price data from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), from local credit unions, from small-town banks and from all-cash sales, for example, are excluded from the HPI because the FHFA has no awareness that the transaction ever happened.

In 2006, this may not have been a big deal; the FHA insured just 4 percent of the housing market at the time. Today, however, the FHA is estimated to insure more than 20% of new home purchases. Furthermore, in August, more than 1 in 4 sales were made with cash.

None of these home sales were included in the HPI. Furthermore, the Home Price Index excludes certain home types from its findings.

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Home sales of condominiums, cooperatives, multi-unit homes and planned unit developments (PUD) are not used in the calculation of the HPI. In some cities, including Chicago and New York City, these property types represent a large percentage of the overall market. The HPI ignores them.

Like other home-value trackers, the Home Price Index can well highlight the housing market’s broader, national trends but for specific home price data about a specific home or a ZIP code, it’s better to talk with a real estate expert with local market knowledge.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 16.4 percent.

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WelcomeHomeNWI

WelcomeHomeNWI.com was created to demystify the national real estate headlines and to provide unbiased real estate trends and statistics relevant to Northwest Indiana. Our mission is facilitated through a collaboration of professionals who are dedicated to the Northwest Indiana real estate industry. Welcome Home NW Indiana! Welcome Home! WelcomeHomeNWI.com is Your Home for Real Estate and Mortgage News for the Best Communities in Northwest Indiana.

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HPI

Home Price Index Show Home Prices Up 3% Since June 2011

August 28, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

The housing market recovery appears to be sustainable.

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, home prices rose by a seasonally-adjusted 0.7 percent between May and June 2012.

The index is now up 3.0% over the past 12 months, and made its biggest quarterly gain since fall 2005.

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Home Price Index, monthly since April 2007

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The FHFA’s Home Price Index measures home price changes through successive home sales for homes whose mortgages are backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, and for which the property type is categorized as a “single-family residence”. 

Condominiums, multi-unit homes and homes with jumbo mortgages, for example, are excluded from the Home Price Index, as are all-cash home sales.

June’s HPI gives buyers and seller in Valparaiso Indiana a reason to cheer, but it’s important to remember that the Home Price Index — like so many other home valuation trackers — has a severe, built-in flaw.

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The HPI uses aged data. It’s nearly September, yet we’re talking numbers from June.

Data that’s two months old has limited meaning in today’s housing market. It’s reflective of the housing market as it looked in the past.

And, even then, to categorize the HPI as “two months old” may be a stretch. Because it often takes 45-60 days to close on a home sale, the home sale prices as reported by the July Home Price Index are the result of purchase contracts written from as far back as February 2012.

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Buyers and sellers in search of real-time home price data, in other words, won’t get it from the FHFA.

The Home Price Index is a useful housing market gauge for law-makers and economists. It highlights long-term trends in housing which can assist in allocating resources to a particular policy or project. For home buyers and sellers throughout Northwest Indiana, however, it’s decidedly less useful. Real-time data is what’s most important.

For that, talk to one of our contributing local real estate experts.

Click here to apply for your FREE home loan approval.

WelcomeHomeNWI

WelcomeHomeNWI.com was created to demystify the national real estate headlines and to provide unbiased real estate trends and statistics relevant to Northwest Indiana. Our mission is facilitated through a collaboration of professionals who are dedicated to the Northwest Indiana real estate industry. Welcome Home NW Indiana! Welcome Home! WelcomeHomeNWI.com is Your Home for Real Estate and Mortgage News for the Best Communities in Northwest Indiana.

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HPI

Home Values Continue To Rise Since October 2011 Bottom

July 25, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Real Estate Chart by alexsl | iStockphoto.comThe housing market’s bottom is 9 months behind us. Home values continue to climb nationwide.

According to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, home values rose 0.8% in May on a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis. May’s reading marks the sixth time in seven months that home values rose.

Values are now higher by 4 percent since the market’s October 2011 bottom.

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As a St John Indiana home buyer or seller, though, it’s important to understand what the Home Price Index measures. Or, more specifically, what the Home Price Index doesn’t measure.

Although widely-cited, the HPI remains widely-flawed, too. It should not be your sole source for real estate data.

As one example of how the Home Price Index is flawed, consider that the HPI only tracks the values of homes with an associated Fannie Mae- or Freddie Mac-backed mortgages. Homes with mortgages insured by the FHA are excluded, as are homes paid for with cash.

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5 years ago, this wasn’t a big deal; the FHA insured just 4 percent of the housing market and cash sales were relatively small. Today, though, the FHA is estimated to insure more than 30% of new purchases and cash sales topped 17 percent in May 2012.

That’s a sizable subset of the U.S. housing market.

A second flaw in the Home Price Index is that it tracks home resales only and ignores new home sales. New home sales represent roughly 10% of the today’s housing market, so that’s a second sizable subset excluded from the HPI.

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And, lastly, we can’t forget that the Home Price Index is on a 60-day publishing delay.

It’s nearly August, yet we’re only now receiving home valuation data from May. A lot can change in the housing market in 60 days, and it often does. The HPI is not reporting on today’s market conditions, in other words — it’s reporting on conditions as they existed two months ago. Information like that is of little use to today’s buyers and sellers in Lake County Indiana.

Since peaking in April 2007, the FHFA’s Home Price Index is off 16.0 percent. For local, up-to-the-minute housing market data, skip the national data. Talk with one of our contributing real estate experts instead.

Click here to apply for your FREE home loan approval.

WelcomeHomeNWI

WelcomeHomeNWI.com was created to demystify the national real estate headlines and to provide unbiased real estate trends and statistics relevant to Northwest Indiana. Our mission is facilitated through a collaboration of professionals who are dedicated to the Northwest Indiana real estate industry. Welcome Home NW Indiana! Welcome Home! WelcomeHomeNWI.com is Your Home for Real Estate and Mortgage News for the Best Communities in Northwest Indiana.

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HPI

April Home Price Index Shows Home Values Up. Really?

June 29, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Surprised Business Woman Holding Newspaper With Extra Headline by ArtisticCaptures | iStockphoto.comThe Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8% in April.

April marks the third consecutive month during which home values increased and the index is now up 3 percent since last year.

As a home buyer in Crown Point Indiana, it’s easy to look at the Home Price Index and believe that its recent, sustained climb is proof of a broader housing market recovery.

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Ultimately, that may prove true. We cannot however base our real estate decisions on the Home Price Index because, like the private-sector Case-Shiller Index, the Home Price Index is flawed.

There are three main flaws in the FHFA’s Home Price Index. They cannot be ignored.

First, the FHFA Home Price Index’s sample set is limited to homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. By definition, therefore, the index excludes homes with mortgages insured by the FHA.

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5 years ago, this wasn’t such an issue because the FHA insured just 4 percent of mortgage. Today, however, the FHA’s market share is estimated to exceed 30 percent.  This means this the HPI excludes more than 30% of U.S. homes from its calculations right from the start.

The index also excludes homes backed by the VA; jumbo mortgages not securitized through the government; and, portfolio loans held by individual banks.

Second, the FHFA Home Price Index is based on the change in price of a home on consecutive home sales. Therefore, it’s sample set cannot include sales of new home sales, nor can it account for purchases made with cash because cash purchases require no mortgage. Cash purchases were 29% of the home resale market in April.

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Third, the Home Price Index is on a 60-day delay.

The report that home values are up 0.8% accounts for homes that closed two months ago, and with contracts from 30-75 days prior to that. In other words, the Home Price Index is measuring housing market activity from as far back as January. 

Reports such as the Home Price Index are helpful in spotting long-term trends in housing but data from January is of little help to today’s Illinois home buyers and sellers. It’s real-time data that matters most and the best place to get real-time housing market data isn’t from a national home valuation report — it’s from a local real estate agent.

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WelcomeHomeNWI

WelcomeHomeNWI.com was created to demystify the national real estate headlines and to provide unbiased real estate trends and statistics relevant to Northwest Indiana. Our mission is facilitated through a collaboration of professionals who are dedicated to the Northwest Indiana real estate industry. Welcome Home NW Indiana! Welcome Home! WelcomeHomeNWI.com is Your Home for Real Estate and Mortgage News for the Best Communities in Northwest Indiana.

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HPI

Home Values Start Year Strong Per FHFA Home Price Index

May 2, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Little Strong Man Playing With Muscles Making Faces by Nadeika | iStockphoto.comHome prices started the year on an upswing. 

According to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, home prices rose by a seasonally-adjusted 0.3 percent between January and February 2012. The index is up 0.4% over the past year, offering a counter-story to the Case-Shiller Index’s assertion that home values are sinking.

Last week, Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index said home values had dropped more than 3 percent in the prior 12 months. 

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As a home buyer or seller in Northwest Indiana and suburbs of Chicago Illinois, data showing “rising home values” or “falling home values” may be of interest to you, but we can’t forget that most home valuation trackers — including both the government’s Home Price Index and the private sector Case-Shiller Index — have a severe, built-in flaw.

Both used “aged” data. Today, the calendar reads May. Yet, we’re still discussing February’s housing data.

Data that is two-plus months old is of little value to everyday buyers and sellers wanting to know the “right now” of housing. And, even then, characterizing the data as “two-plus months old” may be a stretch. This is because the home values used in the Home Price index and the Case-Shiller Index are collected from actual transactions, but at the time of closing.

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Considering that most purchases require 45-60 days to close, we can know that when we look at the Home Price Index and Case-Shiller Index reports for February, what we’re really seeing is a snapshot of the housing market as it existed two-plus month plus 60 days ago.

Data that’s 5 months old is of little relevance to today’s buyers and sellers. Today’s real estate market is driven by today’s economics.

The Home Price Index is a useful gauge for economists and law-makers. It highlights long-term trends in housing which can be helpful in allocating resources to a particular project or policy.

For home buyers and seller throughout Northwest Indiana, though, it’s much less useful. Real-time data is what matters to you. For that, talk to one of our real estate experts.

Click here to apply for your FREE home loan approval.

WelcomeHomeNWI

WelcomeHomeNWI.com was created to demystify the national real estate headlines and to provide unbiased real estate trends and statistics relevant to Northwest Indiana. Our mission is facilitated through a collaboration of professionals who are dedicated to the Northwest Indiana real estate industry. Welcome Home NW Indiana! Welcome Home! WelcomeHomeNWI.com is Your Home for Real Estate and Mortgage News for the Best Communities in Northwest Indiana.

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HPI

The Home Price Index Is Flawed, But That’s Okay Right!?!

Last week, the Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 0.8 percent across 20 tracked markets. The public-sector Federal Housing Finance Agency has reached a similar conclusion.

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government’s Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8 percent in April, buoyed by the expiring federal home buyer tax credit and low mortgage rates.  It’s a positive signal for a recovering housing market — in Schererville Indiana and everywhere else in Northwest Indiana.

Monthly change in Home Price Index from April 2007 peak

But just because the Home Price Index says home values are rising, that doesn’t mean they are. The Home Price Index methodology is flawed on multiple fronts.

First, the Home Price Index reports on a 60-day delay. This two-month lag turns the HPI a trailing indicator for the housing market instead of a forward-looking one. If you’re a home buyer looking for direction, HPI won’t give it to you — you’ll have to get that analysis from your real estate agent.

Second, the Home Price Index only accounts for home values in which the home’s attached mortgage is backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  As the FHA market share grows, fewer homes get included in the HPI sample set, and HPI values may be skewed high or low.

Third, the Home Price Index doesn’t account for new home sales — only repeat ones.  This, too, eliminates a major segment of the market.

All of that said, though, the Home Price Index remains important to housing.  It’s still the most comprehensive home valuation model in print and it’s been giving strong readings since the start of year.  You can’t ignore that on any level.

It’s July and you may have missed the “rock bottom” Northwest Indiana home prices from earlier in the year, but homes are still relatively inexpensive. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and home affordability looks excellent. Consider making an offer while the terms are right.

James K Barath, CMPS®

James K Barath is a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist®, Certified FICO® Professional, Certified Military Housing Specialist® and your FHA Home Loan Expert. He is also a graduate of Purdue University, The CMPS Institute, Dale Carnegie Human Relations Course & Napoleon Hill Foundation's PMA Science of Success Class. It's your home and your future. It's his profession and his passion. He is ready to work for your best interest. Contact James for your FREE Home Loan Approval !  His Motto: I Facilitate the American Dream Through Responsible Mortgage Lending and Financial Literacy!

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HPI

Home Price Index Rises 0.3% in March, Is It Time To Buy?

Home Price Index from April 2007 peakHome values rose in March, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s most recent Home Price Index. Values were reported higher by 0.3 percent, on average, from February.

We use the phrase “on average” because the Home Price Index is broad-reaching, national housing statistic. It ignores the dynamics of neighborhood real estate markets like Sand Creek as well as citywide markets like Chesterton Indiana, too.

Instead, the Home Price Index focuses on state and regional statistics.

For example, in March 2010 as compared to February:

  • Values in the East South Central region rose 2.5%
  • Values in the Mountain states rose 1.1%
  • Values in the Middle Atlantic states fell 1.0%

Of course, none of this data is especially helpful for today’s home buyers and sellers.

Real estate is a local phenomenon that can’t be summarized by state or region. What matters most to buyers and sellers is the economics of a neighborhood and that level of granularity can’t be served up by a national housing report like the Home Price Index.

The Home Price Index data is additionally unhelpful to buyers and sellers in that it reports on a 2-month delay.

In other words, Home Price Index is not even a fair reflection of today’s market — it highlights the real estate market as it existed 60 days ago.

So why is the Home Price Index even published? Because government, business and banks rely on the reports.  As a national indicator, the Home Price Index helps governments make policy, businesses make decisions, and banks make guidelines. This, in turn, trickles down to Main Street where it impacts every one of us — and eventually influences real estate.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.44 percent. Is it time to reach out to your local real estate professional to weigh your home buying options?

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James K Barath, CMPS®

James K Barath is a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist®, Certified FICO® Professional, Certified Military Housing Specialist® and your FHA Home Loan Expert. He is also a graduate of Purdue University, The CMPS Institute, Dale Carnegie Human Relations Course & Napoleon Hill Foundation's PMA Science of Success Class. It's your home and your future. It's his profession and his passion. He is ready to work for your best interest. Contact James for your FREE Home Loan Approval !  His Motto: I Facilitate the American Dream Through Responsible Mortgage Lending and Financial Literacy!

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