Existing Home Sales

The Good News Behind Sagging Home Sales Headline

The winter months have not been kind to home sales in Northwest Indiana.

After plunging 17 percent in December, Existing Home Sales fell by an additional 7 percent in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. An “existing home” is a home resold by a previous owner (i.e. not new construction).

In looking at the annualized, adjusted Existing Home Sales data, we find:

1. Sales volume is at its lowest levels since June 2009
2. Sales volume fell below its 12-month rolling average
3. Home supplies are at a 5-month high

These are similar findings to the New Home Sales data issued by the government last week.  That report put new home sales at a 40-year low and showed new homes supplies higher by an entire month.

But don’t think housing rebound has halted! Home sales are cyclical and there are outside forces on today’s market.

For one, the market is still feeling the after-effects of the original First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. Sales spiked in the months leading up to the original November 2009 expiration date. A pull-back is natural and expected.

Looking at the long-term trend, Existing Home Sales volume appears right in line.

Furthermore, weather across much of the U.S. and in Northwest Indiana was awful in January. That, too, can impede home sales as homes are neither shown nor negotiated when weather is majorly inclement.

Anecdotal evidence is showing sales activity higher through February and into March. And, although it’s unlikely we’ll see a spike through April like we did last November, buy-side demand for homes should remain strong. The good news of the sagging sales reports is that today’s buyers may find home prices are lower and sellers are more willing to negotiate.

Contact James K Barath in Northwest Indiana to Qualify for Your FREE FHA Home Loan Approval Today!

Existing Home Sales

Pending Home Sales Up – Stronger Spring Market Ahead

The Pending Home Sales Index rose slightly in December, climbing 1 percent from November.

A Pending Home Sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but not yet sold. It’s a figure compiled by the National Association of Realtors® using sales data from over 100 regional listing services and more than 60 large brokerages around the country.

Because each pending sale is a true measure of sales activity, the Pending Home Sales Index is purported to be the most reliable forward-looking indicator for housing in Northwest Indiana.

Recent data supports this hypothesis.

After Pending Home Sales plunged 16 percent in November, Existing Home Sales fell by 17 percent in December.  Based on the most recent Pending Sales Index, therefore, we can expect January’s closed sales to be similarly level.

For home buyers in Chesterton, Crown Point, Highland, Munster, Portage, Saint John, Schererville and Valparaiso , this is all a bit of good news. Home prices are based on the supply-and-demand balance that exists between buyers and sellers in Northwest Indiana.  When buyers outnumber sellers, like they did through most of 2009, home supplies dip and, in fact, the national home inventory nearly halved during the 12 months ending November 2009.

With fewer homes for sale, multiple-offer situations were commonplace and home values rose as result.

Activity has since slowed, however, and fewer buyers are in today’s market. The supply-and-demand equation has shifted back some. In December, home supplies rose for the first time in 7 months and January will likely show the same.

The net result: Home buyers have more homes from which to choose and that can create negotiation leverage for better prices and better concessions.

With mortgage rates still low in Northwest Indiana and a looming deadline on the homebuyer’s tax credit, market activity should be strong between now and April.   Take your time and bid right. And when you’re ready, be ready. The best deals likely won’t last.

Contact Benchmark Mortgage in Northwest Indiana to Qualify for Your FREE FHA Home Loan Approval Today!

Existing Home Sales

Good News Home Buyers – Existing Homes Sales Tanked

Just one month after from blowing away Wall Street, December’s Existing Home Sales hit the skids, shedding nearly 17 percent and falling to a 4-month low.

Don’t be alarmed, though. The plunge was expected. And not just because Pending Home Sales cratered last month.

When November’s Existing Home Sales surged in Northwest Indiana, it was clear to observers that an expiring $8,000 federal tax credit was the catalyst. At the time, the tax program was slated to expire November 30 and the looming deadline pushed a lot of would-be buyers in Chesterton, Portage and Valparaiso from a December time frame into November.

The expiration date has a cannibalizing effect on December’s sales figures. It was only later that Congress extended the tax credit to June 30, 2010.

So, with home sales plunging in December, it’s no surprise that home supplies rose for the first time in 9 months.  Home Supply is calculating by dividing the number of homes for sale by the current sales pace.

The national housing supply now rests at 7.2 months.

Despite December’s Existing Home Sales report appearing shaky, it’s actually terrific new for home buyers in Chesterton, Crown Point, Highland, Munster, Portage, Saint John, Schererville and Valparaiso.

See, for the past few months, as housing has been improving, sellers in Northwest Indiana have been bombarded by messages of “hot markets” and rising home prices by the media.  Psychologically, a seller in Northwest Indiana is more likely to hold firm on price if he believes the housing market is improving and now December’s data is deflating that argument.

This is why we say there’s always two sides to a housing story — the buyers’ side and the sellers’ side. And, usually, what’s good for one party is bad for the other. It’s what we’re seeing now.

Because of soft data like December’s Existing Home Sales, buyers in Northwest Indiana may retake some negotiation leverage that’s been lost since Spring 2009, helping to improve home affordability and, perhaps, spur more sales in Chesterton, Crown Point, Highland, Munster, Portage, Saint John, Schererville and Valparaiso.

Contact Benchmark Mortgage in Northwest Indiana to Qualify for Your FREE FHA Home Loan Approval Today!

Existing Home Sales

Home Inventories Plummet, Higher Prices to Come

Home resales are soaring.

For the 4th consecutive month, the Existing Home Sales report revealed what today’s buyers and sellers already know – there’s a lot of buyer activity right now.

Existing Home Sales surged 7-plus percent in November, posting its largest number of recorded sales in 33 months.  Sales volume is up 44% higher versus last year.

It’s another example of the housing market in recovery.

There were other interesting statistics buried in the November data, too.  According to the National Association of Realtors:

1. 51 percent of home buyers were first-timers
2. Distressed properties accounted for one-third of all sales
3. The median home sale price rose slightly

But of all the stats from the November Existing Home Sales report, perhaps the most important one is the one showing home supplies falling to 6.5 months. It’s nearly half of the home supply available last November.

The rapid run-off of inventory throughout 2009 is more than a trend at this point and suggests higher home valuations in 2010. Especially because mortgage rates are low, tax credits are available, and the press is giving housing positive coverage.

You shouldn’t feel rushed to buy, but you probably don’t wait too long, either.  The best deals of 2010 may be gone before that Spring Buying Season even starts.

Need more expert advice? Ask the team of Certified Mortgage Planning Specialists at Benchmark Mortgage.

Existing Home Sales

Surprise! Existing Home Sales UP Again

Another month, another piece of evidence that the housing market is in recovery.

Existing Home Sales surged in October as the nation’s homebuyers took advantage of low mortgage rates, low list prices, and, for some, a generous tax credit.

Home resales are 23 percent higher versus a year ago and home supply is down to 7 months nationwide.

Inventory hasn’t been this low since February 2007.

The news shouldn’t be surprising, however.  The same real estate trade group that produces the Existing Home Sales report also publishes a monthly report meant to predict future home sales called the Pending Home Sales Index.

Pending Home Sales have been through the roof since mid-May.

So, with pending home sales showing no signs of slowing and 80% of pendings turning into actual, closed sales, we can expect existing home sales volume to rise in the coming months, too.  Especially because Congress extended the home buyer tax credit to include (1) “Move-up” buyers and, (2) Buyers with higher household incomes.

It’s terrific news for home sellers. The housing market turnaround means higher sale prices and fewer concessions to buyers long-term.

To buyers, on the other hand, the news isn’t so good. The window to find a “deal” appears to be closing quickly.

Need more expert advice? Ask the team of Certified Mortgage Planning Specialists at Benchmark Mortgage.

Existing Home Sales

Falling Home Supplies Mean More Multiple-Offer Situations For Buyers

The national housing supply fell to a 2-year low last month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

At the current sales pace, existing home inventories would sell out in 7.8 months – 30 percent faster versus November 2008.

For a 10-month window, that’s a major housing supply reduction and it helps to explain why multiple-offer situations have been so common lately.

Moreover, the same report from NAR showed sales activity reaching its highest point since July 2007, too.

If you’re looking for evidence that the long-standing Buyers Market is ending, this month’s Existing Home Sales report might be it.

Even median sales prices – typically dragged lower by distressed and foreclosed properties – declined at its slowest pace in a year.  The market may have turned a corner.

Home prices are rooted in the basic economics of supply and demand.

• When supply outweighs demand, home prices fall
• When supply lags demand, home price rise

Since March 2009, the market has been moving in the right direction.  Low mortgage rates, ample housing supply and a first-time home buyer tax credit fueled buy-side demand so that home prices are now rising in many U.S. markets.

If home supplies stay on this path into 2010, expect home prices to rise even more.

Need more expert advice? Ask the team of Certified Mortgage Planning Specialists at Benchmark Mortgage.

Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Supply Falls by Nearly a Month

As reported by the National Association of REALTORS®, the number of Existing Home Sales dipped last month, ending the metric’s 5-month winning streak.

Newspaper headlines today are overwhelmingly negative on housing. You’d almost believe this year’s housing recovery had ended. 

That’s hardly the case.

See, the other side of the Existing Home Sales story is that — while the number of units sold did fall by 3 percent – the existing supply fell by nearly an entire month.

To home buyers and home sellers, this is huge.  Home prices are based on supply and demand and with supplies plummeting, it means that home prices are poised to rise.

Indeed, dwindling inventory isn’t “news” to today’s buyers.  Multiple offer situations have been common since the start of the summer and, should supplies fall further, they may soon be the home-buying rule rather than the exception.

Since peaking in November 2008, existing home supplies are down 23%.

Need more expert advice? Ask the team of Certified Mortgage Planning Specialists at Benchmark Mortgage.

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