Employment Report

Obama’s Right. Jobs Report Wasn’t As Bad As The Headlines

In June, for the first time since December 2009, the U.S. workforce shrank.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy shed 125,000 jobs last month even as the Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.5 percent. The drop in the Unemployment Rate is being attributed to fewer Americans looking for work.

At first glance, the jobs report looks weak but a deeper look shows something different.

Excluding the 225,000 government Census workers that recently left the workforce, the total number of employed persons actually grew by 83,000 in June. That’s 50,000 more working Americans as compared to May.

And, since the start of the year, the U.S. workforce has grown by 857,000.

Jobs growth is closely tied to economic growth because more working Americans means more disposable income which, in turn, stokes consumer spending. Job growth is better than job loss.

Consumer spending makes up the majority of the U.S. economy so as consumer spending grows, investor mentality tends to shifts toward “return on principal” (i.e. stock markets) from “safety of principal” (i.e. bond markets).

A move like this is often bad for home affordability because falling demand for bonds is tied to higher mortgage rates. In addition, demand for homes is likely to increase with the growing number of Americans earning a paycheck. Thereby helping to push home prices higher.

The June jobs report therefore should be bad for rate shoppers and home buyers in Valparaiso Indiana. Fortunately, the markets aren’t reacting that way. Mortgage rates for now are slightly improved since the jobs report’s release.

Perhaps Wall Street is watching the wrong figures, but don’t let that be your loss. If you’re shopping for a mortgage, a home, or both, now may be your best time while rates are still low and with home prices down. Make a move before traders change their tune and you lose your window of opportunity.

Employment Report

Jobs Report Gives Temporary Boost To Home Affordability

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls data from the month prior. 

The release is more commonly called “the jobs report” — a major factor in mortgage rates and monthly payments.

Especially now.

With the recession officially over and growth returning to the U.S. economy, the recovery’s next frontier is jobs. As job growth increases, home affordability should take a hit.  Here’s why:

1. As the number of working Americans increases, so should total consumer spending
2. As consumer spending increases, so should a return to risk-taking on Wall Street
3. As risk-taking returns to Wall Street, bond markets should start to lose

Mortgage rates, therefore, should rise.

Furthermore, as the jobs market stabilizes and recovers, renters should be more apt to buy their first home, and homeowners should be apt to up-size.  More home buyers in Munster Indiana means more competition for homes and higher home prices typically follow.

Job growth can be trickle-up for housing.

Today, however, the jobs data was not so strong. According to the government, 431,000 jobs were created in May, but of those new jobs, 95.4% represented temporary staffing for the 2010 Census.  The number of private-sector jobs created fell well short of expectations and Wall Street is voting with its dollars right now.  Mortgage bonds are gaining so, therefore, rates are falling.

The May 2010 jobs report may not reflect well on the economy, but home affordability in Indiana and around the country is improving because of it.

Employment Report

April’s Jobs Report Ironically Good for Mortgage Rates

On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

More commonly called “the jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls is a major market mover. The number of working Americans is directly tied to the health of the economy which, in turn, drives the stock and bond markets.

In general, when jobs numbers improve, it’s good for stocks and bad for mortgage bonds. It follows, therefore, that conforming mortgage rates in Chicago Illinois rise because rates always move opposite of mortgage bond prices.

Conversely, when jobs numbers worsen, it tends to be bad for stocks and good for mortgage bonds.  Mortgage rates fall.

Today, markets are behaving a bit differently.

Despite 290,000 jobs created in April 2010 — nearly twice the expected amount — and a 40 percent upward revision of March’s numbers, mortgage rates are essentially unchanged. 

In a normal environment, rates would be higher.  Today is not normal.

Today is a departure because, for all of the jobs report’s import to Wall Street, it’s less important to markets than what’s happening in Greece right now.

Greece is struggling to meet its debt obligations and its citizens are rioting.

Until a debt solution for Greece is made that sticks, unrest in the region will drive safe haven buying both domestically and abroad. U.S. mortgage bonds will gain on that movement because mortgage bonds are “safe”, and mortgage rates will fall.

Indeed, this is exactly what’s been happening since the start of April. Mortgage markets have been rallying for 5 weeks.

So, today’s jobs news is terrific for the economy and mortgage rates should be rising because of it.  But, they’re not. Consider taking advantage — lock in your home loan rate.

Employment Report

Friday’s Jobs Report Can and Will Impact Mortgage Rates

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates have improved over the last 10 days, but that could all change this Friday with the release of February’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Non-Farm Payrolls is the official name of the government’s monthly jobs report and, given the fragile state of the U.S. economy, Wall Street and Northwest Indiana will be watching it closely.

Mortgage rates could spike come Friday morning.

Jobs are an important part of the nation’s recovery. Among other concerns, unemployed Americans don’t spend as much money on goods and services, and are more likely to default on a mortgage. This retards economic growth and increases the potential for foreclosures.

When jobs numbers worsen, therefore, it follows that economic projections worsen, too.

Poor employment figures draw money away from the stock markets and into less-risky bond markets, including mortgage-backed bonds.  Mortgage rates improve as a result. Conversely, when jobs numbers improve, stock markets gain and bond markets worsen.

Analysts expect that a net 30,000 jobs were lost in February.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics press release hits at 8:30 A.M. ET, roughly an hour before Friday’s mortgage pricing will be available to consumers. If you’re worried about rates rising on the heels of a strong jobs report, therefore, be sure to get your rate lock in today instead. Once Friday gets here, it may be too late.

Contact James K Barath in Northwest Indiana to Qualify for Your FREE FHA Home Loan Approval Today!

Employment Report

July Jobs Data Is Weak, But Strong Enough To Sock Mortgage Rates

This morning’s jobs report is doing a number on mortgage rates, putting another dent in home affordability nationwide.

Despite the slightly flat Unemployment Rate, the government’s July Non-Farm Payrolls report reinforced the notion that the recession may be ending soon, if it hasn’t already.

Just 247,000 jobs were lost last month — much fewer than analysts had expected.

Now, if it seems strange to be talking economic recovery while Americans are still losing jobs — 5.7 million in the last 12 months, in fact — remember that we have to take the data in context.

Job loss doesn’t lead to economic growth, per se, but analysts tend to treat employment data as a lagging indicator.  Business is often slow to hire and slow to fire, so the jobs report rarely reflects the “right now”.

A terrific real-world example of jobs data as a lagging indicator is that the peak of recent job loss — January 2009 — occurred 4 months after the peak of the financial crisis in September 2008.

The same pattern was present during the Recession of 2001. 

Government data shows that job loss peaked during the recession in October 2001, 1 month before the recession’s official end.  Meanwhile, job losses continued nationwide for the next year and didn’t turn net positive until October 2002 — nearly 12 months into the recession’s subsequent recovery.

This is what we mean by lagging indicator and it’s why investors are cheering today’s jobs data.  Strength in today’s report may be signaling the end of the recession. 

Unfortunately for today’s rate shoppers, it pushing mortgage rates higher.  As stock markets soar, bond markets sink.

Employment Report

How a Rising Unemployment Rate Can Help Mortgage Rates Fall

Last week’s jobs report is the latest data point to drag down rates for today’s home buyers and would-be refinancers.

As reported by the government, the national Unemployment Rate rose to 9.5 percent in June — a 25-year high.

As the percentage of out-of-work Americans grows, households have less disposable income to pump back into the economy. 

And so, because consumer spending accounts for two-third of the economy, the growing ranks of the unemployed are forcing markets to change expectations about when the U.S. economy will reach its full recovery.

Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.  The perceived absence of inflation, therefore, can be its friend. 

With fewer working Americans, we can expect slower economic growth plus a smaller probability for inflation over the medium-term. This is why mortgage rates are lower of late, off by as much as a half-percent from the peak.

Employment Report

Want To Know Why Mortgage Rates Are Up Over 1.125 Percent In 10 Days?

Since Memorial Day, conforming mortgage rates have jumped by more than 1.125 percent, adding thousands of dollars to the annual cost of homeownership.

To the casual observer, the moves may seem random. There’s a reason this is happening, however.

It starts with inflation.

As an economic force, inflation erodes the value of the U.S. Dollar. Left unchecked, it drives up the Cost of Living as each dollar “buys less” at the supermarket, gas station, or anywhere else.

But with respect to mortgage rates, inflation’s impact is more immediate. Because inflation devalues the dollar over the long-term, it renders long-term mortgage bonds a less attractive investment for traders.

If bond investors are repaid in U.S. Dollars, after all, it would make the investment worth less if the dollar is in an inflationary freefall.

Therefore, in situations when inflation is likely to present, we find that traders often sell out of their mortgage bond positions which, in turn, drives down the bond prices. Then, because bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, rising rates are the inevitable result.

Lately, Wall Street is fearing inflation for a number of reasons:

1. Job losses are slowing, adding to consumer spending expectations
2. Gas prices have risen 41 days in a row
3. The federal government is increasing the money supply

These 3 factors — plus a few others — are all coming to a head around the same time and traders are getting defensive with their portfolios. As a result, they’re selling their mortgage bond positions and it’s driving mortgage rates higher.

Rates may continue to trek toward 7 percent through July and August, or they may retreat toward 5 percent. We can’t know for sure. What we can know, though, is that volatility in rates should continue until the economic picture gets more clear. That could be next week, or next year.

For now, be ready to lock at a moment’s notice. Mortgage rates are changing quickly.

Employment Report

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week: June 1st

Mortgage markets took a beating last week, sending conforming mortgage rates soaring Wednesday afternoon. Despite a modest recovery Thursday and Friday, though, mortgage rates still moved higher on the week overall.

It was the fourth time in 5 weeks that mortgage rates worsened.

By far, the biggest news of last week was Wednesday’s mortgage market meltdown.

Beginning shortly after 1:00 PM ET, and in the span of about 90 minutes, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate soared. The action was so swift that a number of mortgage lenders shut down their Lock Desks, unwilling to accept new business.

There was no “news”-like reason for the action, by the way — just a general feeling on Wall Street that the U.S. government’s massive debt load may lead to inflation sometime in the future. As inflationary fears rise, mortgage rates often rise with them and this is what we witnessed happened Wednesday.

Markets regained their cool Thursday and Friday, but could only erase half of Wednesday’s surge.

This week, look for data to determine whether mortgage rates rise or fall. Monday and Friday will be the biggest days.

On Monday, in addition to releasing consumer spending data from May, the government publishes the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. If either number comes in hotter-than-expected, mortgage rates should rise.

Similarly, if Friday’s employment data is better-than-expected, rates should rise, too. More working Americans means more consumer spending and spending makes up two-thirds of the economy.

Markets expect that another 550,000 workers lost their jobs last month, raising the 12-month total to 5.65 million.

Between Monday and Friday, a number of Federal Reserve members will be speaking publicly, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Each speaker’s statements, of course, can influence mortgage rates as well.

Overall, markets remain volatile and mortgage rates are jumpy. If you find a rate that fits your budget and with which you can be comfortable, consider locking it in before the news gives the rate reason to change.

Employment Report

Mortgage Rates Higher on April’s 539,000 Jobs Lost

The economy shed 539,000 jobs in April, raising the 6-month total to nearly 4 million jobs lost.

And while the April data may look bad, it’s actually 10% better than what was expected.

As a result, it’s turning into a bad day to be shopping for mortgage rates.

After bottoming out early last week, conforming, 30-year fixed rate mortgages have risen in cost by as much as three-quarters of a percent. Today’s good-for-the-economy report may push costs higher still.

Now, it may seem odd to categorize 539-thousand lost jobs as “good-for-the-economy”, but it’s important to remember that on Wall Street, expectations are everything.

Investors are constantly buying and selling securities based on what they think will happen in the future. And, up until this morning, there was an expectation that 600-thousand jobs had been lost in April.

As it turns out — relative — the actual job loss data wasn’t so bad.

Now, markets are making adjustments and re-forming expectations of what’s ahead for the economy. They’re preparing for things like higher levels of consumer spending in the months ahead, and fewer home foreclosures nationwide. Both outcomes would help to spur the economy from recession.

This helps explain the stock market’s early rally, too.

For now, mortgage markets remain sensitive to whiffs of an economic recovery. In general, if there’s good news for the country, it going to be bad news for mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates are off slightly in advance of the weekend.

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