Economic Reports

What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: August 9th

Last week it was all about jobs and it wasn’t Steve Jobs.

In case you missed it, last Friday’s Jobs Report showed that 131,000 jobs were lost in the month of July. Even worse was the fact that June’s employment report was revised showing nearly 100,000 more jobs were lost than originally reported.

Where does this leave the economy and the real estate industry?

Without jobs, there will be no consumer spending which accounts for nearly 70% of the economy. Without jobs, consumers lack the confidence to buy big ticket items such as a house. There is definitely no doubt that without jobs, there is no economic recovery.

Even last week it was reported that Personal Savings had increased again. An increase in Personal Savings sounds like a good thing. Unfortunately, an increase in savings means that money is not being spent in the economy.

The economic reports to keep an eye on this week to get a sense of consumer’s willingness to spend will be Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the end of the week.

Before these two critical economic reports on Friday, every analyst and arm-chair economist will be listening to what Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve board members have to say tomorrow.

There is still much debate on the state of the economy and an economic recovery. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting will hopefully provide keen insight as to the mindset of how and when the Federal Reserve will get us there.

This is What’s News for Mortgage Rates This Week: August 9th.

Quick general rule of thumb when keeping an eye on mortgage rates.

Strong Economic News: $$$ from Bonds —> Stocks = Home Loan Rates Worsen

Weak Economic News: $$$ from Stocks —> Bonds = Home Loan Rates Improve

Want to see what other economic reports might impact home buyers and home refinance options in the coming week? Visti the Mortgage Market Update and check out the Economic Calendar.

New Homes Sales Gain in June, But What Does It Mean

After a down month in May, the sales of newly-built homes appears back on track.

As published by the Census Bureau, June’s New Home Sales report showed:

1. A 24 percent sales volume increase from the month prior
2. A 2-month drop in the supply of newly-built home

There are now just 210,000 new homes for sale nationwide.

June’s data is a major improvement over May, but it’s possible that the true “new home market” may be softer than the statistics suggest. This is for several reasons.

First, we’re comparing June’s sales data to the worst month in New Home Sales history.

In May, sales of new homes totaled just 267,000 units nationwide. That’s one-quarter fewer sales than in the previous worst month in New Home Sales history. May’s sales levels were awful by any measure but June’s improvement to 330,000 units remains second-worst sales levels ever posted.

Second, June’s new home supply of 7.6 months is elevated versus the historical norm near 6.0 months.  The last year has averaged 7.7 months.

For buyers of new homes in Chesterton Indiana, this combination of low sales volume and higher-than-normal inventory may be a positive. It’s the main reason why homebuilder confidence is reeling and the downturn has opened some doors for big discounts and deals. Free upgrades and closing cost credits can make a well-priced home even more attractive in Chesterton Indiana.

Plus, home affordability in Chesterton Indiana may never be better with mortgage rates at all-time lows and expected to rise later this fall.

Existing Home Sales Drop But Move Up Buyers Rise In June

Consistent with most post-home buyer tax credit housing news, the National Association of Realtors® says Existing Home Sales eased lower last month.

An “existing home” is a home that cannot be considered new construction.

The 5 percent drop in sales from May to June was expected, but a closer look at the month’s data reveals some interesting trends.

First, repeat buyers accounted for 44 percent of home resales in June, up from 40 percent in May. That’s a healthy increase for just 4 weeks’ time and the tax credit is a likely catalyst. First-timer buyers bought starter homes owned by former first-timers, who were then free to “move up” to larger, more expensive property.

Housing markets can be trickle-up and, not coincidentally, the jumbo/luxury housing market is now in the midst of rebound.

Second, June’s “distressed sales” accounted for 32 percent of all home resales, up from 31 percent in May.

A figure like this hints at the large role foreclosures continue to play in a Portage Indiana home buyer’s home search strategy.  And why not? The National Association of Realtors® suggests that distressed homes are sold at a 15 percent discount.

Lastly, take note that home inventories are still rising in Portage Indiana. As of July 16, 2010, there were 262 homes actively listed for sale in Portage Indiana and inventories are back to their highs from December 2009.

Overall, the Existing Home Sales data from June is a mixed bag. There’s support for the middle- and upper-price tiers, but a growing overhang of supply. The market looks favorable for buyers given low mortgage rates and strong negotiation leverage.

Looking for a great deal and a great Realtor in Portage Indiana?

CLICK HERE to Sign Up for the Portage IN Real Estate Deal Of The Week.

June Housing Starts Ease But 7x Better Than Headline Data

Single-family Housing Starts eased lower last month, falling by 0.7 percent from May, or 3,000 units nationwide.

A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started.

June’s Housing Starts data is somewhat soft and may partially explain why home builder confidence dropped to its lowest level since April 2009, but for buyers and sellers in Valparaiso Indiana, the Housing Starts report is not nearly as bad as headlines say.

This is because when the press reports on Housing Starts, it doesn’t single out single-family homes. The press lumps every type of home into a single, giant reading. As a result, news outlets are reporting Housing Starts down 5 percent — a somewhat misleading figure.

The 5 percent figure is actually a combination of 3 separate housing types:

1. Single-Family Housing Starts
2. Multi-Unit Housing Starts (2-4 Units)
3. Apartment Building Housing Starts (5 or more units)

But, single-family homes are what most Americans purchase. This is why the single-family starts data is more relevant than the combined figure commonly reported by the press. 2-4 units and apartment buildings are a different realm of buyer.

That said, though, we can’t even be sure that June’s Single-Family Housing Starts report is accurate. As noted in the Department of Commerce’s press release, the data’s margin of error is 10.7 percent which means the reported results are of “no confidence”.

In other words, there is no statistical evidence to prove the actual change was different from zero.

If Housing Starts did drop in June, it will help to reduce the Porter County Indiana housing inventory, which will provide support for local home values. For home sellers, this could be good news. Fewer homes for sale means less competition for buyers.

Sagging Homebuilder Confidence Opens Door To Good Deals

Builder confidence in the housing market slipped this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ monthly Housing Market Index.

The Housing Market Index is actually a weighted composite of 3 separate surveys. One measures current single-family sales; one measures projected single-family sales; and one measures traffic of prospective buyers.

All three surveys were down in July:

• Single-Family Sales : From 17 (June) to 15 (July)
• Single-Family Project : From 22 (June) to 21 (July)
• Buyer Foot Traffic : From 13 (June) to 10 (July)

The HMI’s July reading of 14 puts confidence at its lowest point since April 2009.

For home buyers in Dyer Indiana, a drop in builder confidence could create an opportunity for negotiation.

Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that most builders were flush with home inventory, unable to find willing buyers. To help move product at that time, builders dropped prices and offered incentives including free upgrades. If confidence continues to sag going forward, home purchase deals of that nature may return — especially as the foreclosure market gets larger.

Builders’ main competition for buyers in the past were existing home sellers. Today, builders must compete with the existing home sellers and the banks with REO. 

It’s a terrific time to be a home buyer, in other words — sellers are fighting for you. It’s no wonder sellers have little leverage anymore. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and affordability for homes is at an all-time high.

If you’re planning to buy a home later this year, you may want to consider moving up your time frame. The market looks ripe for good deals this summer.

The Home Price Index Is Flawed, But That’s Okay Right!?!

Last week, the Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 0.8 percent across 20 tracked markets. The public-sector Federal Housing Finance Agency has reached a similar conclusion.

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government’s Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8 percent in April, buoyed by the expiring federal home buyer tax credit and low mortgage rates.  It’s a positive signal for a recovering housing market — in Schererville Indiana and everywhere else in Northwest Indiana.

But just because the Home Price Index says home values are rising, that doesn’t mean they are. The Home Price Index methodology is flawed on multiple fronts.

First, the Home Price Index reports on a 60-day delay. This two-month lag turns the HPI a trailing indicator for the housing market instead of a forward-looking one. If you’re a home buyer looking for direction, HPI won’t give it to you — you’ll have to get that analysis from your real estate agent.

Second, the Home Price Index only accounts for home values in which the home’s attached mortgage is backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  As the FHA market share grows, fewer homes get included in the HPI sample set, and HPI values may be skewed high or low.

Third, the Home Price Index doesn’t account for new home sales — only repeat ones.  This, too, eliminates a major segment of the market.

All of that said, though, the Home Price Index remains important to housing.  It’s still the most comprehensive home valuation model in print and it’s been giving strong readings since the start of year.  You can’t ignore that on any level.

It’s July and you may have missed the “rock bottom” Northwest Indiana home prices from earlier in the year, but homes are still relatively inexpensive. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and home affordability looks excellent. Consider making an offer while the terms are right.

Obama’s Right. Jobs Report Wasn’t As Bad As The Headlines

In June, for the first time since December 2009, the U.S. workforce shrank.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy shed 125,000 jobs last month even as the Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.5 percent. The drop in the Unemployment Rate is being attributed to fewer Americans looking for work.

At first glance, the jobs report looks weak but a deeper look shows something different.

Excluding the 225,000 government Census workers that recently left the workforce, the total number of employed persons actually grew by 83,000 in June. That’s 50,000 more working Americans as compared to May.

And, since the start of the year, the U.S. workforce has grown by 857,000.

Jobs growth is closely tied to economic growth because more working Americans means more disposable income which, in turn, stokes consumer spending. Job growth is better than job loss.

Consumer spending makes up the majority of the U.S. economy so as consumer spending grows, investor mentality tends to shifts toward “return on principal” (i.e. stock markets) from “safety of principal” (i.e. bond markets).

A move like this is often bad for home affordability because falling demand for bonds is tied to higher mortgage rates. In addition, demand for homes is likely to increase with the growing number of Americans earning a paycheck. Thereby helping to push home prices higher.

The June jobs report therefore should be bad for rate shoppers and home buyers in Valparaiso Indiana. Fortunately, the markets aren’t reacting that way. Mortgage rates for now are slightly improved since the jobs report’s release.

Perhaps Wall Street is watching the wrong figures, but don’t let that be your loss. If you’re shopping for a mortgage, a home, or both, now may be your best time while rates are still low and with home prices down. Make a move before traders change their tune and you lose your window of opportunity.

The Good News Behind May’s Pending Home Sales Report

The Pending Home Sales Index plunged in May 2010, just one month after the expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit program.

The Pending Home Sales Index is now at a record-low level.

A “pending home sale” is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days.

Because of this timeline, we can expect the summer’s Existing Home Sales to be weak, too. With fewer homes going under contract, fewer homes can close.

On the surface, May’s Pending Home Sales Index looks like terrible news for housing. It just might be if you’re a seller. But, the story reads differently if you’re a buyer.  Just consider the market conditions. 

A broad look at the housing market shows:

1. Home supplies are rising in most markets
2. Home sales are falling in most markets
3. Mortgage rates are at all-time lows

In other words, in most markets, more sellers are competing for fewer buyers, and the “winning” buyers are financing their homes at the lowest rates in history.

It’s an excellent time to be a home buyer in Portage Indiana.

Case-Shiller Shows Home Values Up In 90% Of Cities

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday.  The index is a monthly home valuation report from select cities and among the private sector’s most popular home pricing models.

In reviewing the April Case-Shiller Index and its accompanying analysis, it appears that the housing market’s rebound is gathering momentum.

In the index’s 20 tracked cities:

• 18 of 20 improved from March to April 2010
• Versus April 2009, home prices are up nearly 4 percent
• The two “down” cities from April — Miami and New York — are off just 0.5% and 1.0% annually, respectively

Furthermore, as another sign of strength, San Diego, a city in which homeowners have lost a lot of equity since 2007, has now shown 12 straight months of home price improvement.

However, the Case-Shiller Index must be kept in context. It’s far from perfect.

For one, the index reports on a 60-day delay; it’s only now showing data from the end of April, when the federal homebuyer tax credit was expiring. Home sales have been weak since then it’s been reported.

And second, the Case-Shiller Index is limited to just 20 cities nationwide. Therefore, the index doesn’t consider every home sale in every American city — it only considers a select few. Many more U.S. homes are excluded from the Case-Shiller Index than are included.

Despite its flaws, the Case-Shiller Index remains important with respect to economic analysis. Much like the government’s Home Price Index, Case-Shiller helps to identify broader trends in housing that shape government and monetary policy.

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