Housing Analysis, New Home Sales

New Home Sales Slip in February, But Housing IS Recovering

March 27, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Wet Floor Sign by evirgen | iStockphoto.comSales of “new homes” fell to the lowest levels in four months last month on a national level.

According to the Census Bureau’s monthly New Home Sales report, 313,000 new homes were sold in February 2012 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, representing a 1.6% drop from the month prior.

A “new home” is a home for which there has had no previous owner nor rentor.

At first glance, the data looks negative for the housing market; a suggestion that the well-publicized housing market recovery may be slowed. However, within February’s New Home Sales report are three important counter-statistics worth mentioning.

Click here to apply for your FREE home loan approval.

First, although annualized home sales volume slipped 5,000 units in February, this occurred as the number of homes for sale nationwide remained constant at 150,000. This is the fewest number of new homes for sale since at least 1993 — the first year that the Census Bureau tracked such data.

A small home supply promotes rising home values when buyer demand is rising and, in February, buyer demand held firm.

A second reason to remain optimistic on housing is that New Home Supply was 5.8 months in February. This means that, at the current pace of sales, the entire new home inventory will be “sold out” in 5.8 months.

Housing experts say that when home supplies fall below 6.0 months, it’s bullish for housing.

And, as a third reason to look past the New Home Sales headline figure, last month’s reporting Margin of Error was huge and I mean huge.

Click here to apply for your FREE home loan approval.

According to the government, the February New Home Sales data was published with a ±23.9% margin of error. This means that the actual New Home Sales sales volume may have dropped as much as -25.5%, or may have climbed by as much as +22.3%. 

Because the range of possible values includes both positive and negative numbers, the Census Bureau assigned its February data the “zero confidence” label.

It will be several months before February’s New Home Sales data is revised. Until then, buyers in Northwest Indiana and suburbs of Chicago Illinois would do well to take cues from the real estate market-at-large which shows steady, gradual improvement. 

If your 2012 housing plans call for buying new construction, consider using February’s results as a window to “make a deal”. As the year progresses, great values in housing may be gone for good.

Click here to apply for your FREE home loan approval.

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
Be Sociable, Share!

WelcomeHomeNWI

WelcomeHomeNWI.com was created to demystify the national real estate headlines and to provide unbiased real estate trends and statistics relevant to Northwest Indiana. Our mission is facilitated through a collaboration of professionals who are dedicated to the Northwest Indiana real estate industry. Welcome Home NW Indiana! Welcome Home! WelcomeHomeNWI.com is Your Home for Real Estate and Mortgage News for the Best Communities in Northwest Indiana.

More Posts - Website

  • Get your FICO Score with Score Watch® today! Click here!

Speak Your Mind

WelcomeHomeNWI.com