Market Insight, The Economy

Housing and Mortgage: The Experts Make Their 2012 Predictions

January 4, 2012 by · 2 Comments 

What's next for housing in 2012As the new year begins, there are no shortage of stories telling us what to expect in 2012. Housing finished 2011 with momentum and mortgage rates closed at the lowest rates of all time.

Some expect those trends to continue through the first quarter and beyond. Others expect a rapid reversal.

Who’s right and who’s wrong? A quick look through the newspapers, websites and business television programs reveals “experts” with opposing, well-delivered arguments views. It’s tough to know who to believe.

For example, here are some “on-the-record” predictions for 2012 :

The issue for buyers, seller, and would-be refinancers in Crown Point and nationwide is that it can be a challenge to separate a “prediction” from fact at times. 

When an argument is made on the pages of a respected newspaper or website, or is presented on CNBC or Bloomberg by a well-dressed, well-spoken industry insider, we’re inclined to believe what we read and hear.

This is human nature.

However, we must force ourselves to remember that any analysis about the future — whether it’s housing-related, mortgage-related, or something else — are based on a combination of past events and personal opinion.

Predictions are guesses about what might come next — nothing more.

For example, at the start of 2009, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 6 percent, but it did. Then, at the start of 2010, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 5 percent, but it did.

All we can know for certain about today’s market is that both mortgage rates and home values are low, creating favorable home-buying conditions in and around Northwest Indiana and nationwide.

At that start of last year, few people expected mortgage rates to even reach 4 percent. Today, rates “with points” price in the 3s.

What 2012 has in store we just can’t know.

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James K Barath, CMPS®

James K Barath is a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist®, Certified FICO® Professional, Certified Military Housing Specialist® and your FHA Home Loan Expert. He is also a graduate of Purdue University, The CMPS Institute, Dale Carnegie Human Relations Course & Napoleon Hill Foundation's PMA Science of Success Class. It's your home and your future. It's his profession and his passion. He is ready to work for your best interest. Contact James for your FREE Home Loan Approval !  His Motto: I Facilitate the American Dream Through Responsible Mortgage Lending and Financial Literacy!

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2 Responses to “Housing and Mortgage: The Experts Make Their 2012 Predictions”
  1. Steve Cardwell says:

    I think most people are going to do what they need to do based more on their day-to-day needs than on market timing. If it is time to buy, and they have that all-important job and credit score, they will go now (a good timing decision, BTW).
    When people try to out-smart them market based on some market-timing scheme, they might be nominally correct, they may get their assumptions wrong and be worse off, or they may simply delay the satisfaction of accomplishing their goal.
    For instance I’m sure there is a lot of pent-up demand to move from sellers who refused to lower their price, but will be forced to lower it sooner or later–a decision put off until something more critical comes along. OTOH, buyers who are renting have much more flexibility when making their decisions of where, when, lifestyle amenities, and how much to spend.

  2. Steve – Timing the market is something not even the experts can do on a consistent basis and they watch the market every day. It always amazes me when the average consumer thinks they can outsmart the market. If you really feel like rolling the dice, we have several casinos in the region to visit. They would be happy to take your money with a smile.

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