April 2009

Why Home Buyers Should Worry About Falling Housing Starts And Why Sellers Should Cheer Them

With respect to housing data, news is rarely positive or negative on a universal level. There’s always two perspectives to consider, after all.

1. The home buyer’s perspective
2. The home seller’s perspective

Usually, when data is beneficial to one group, it’s less beneficial to the other. This is true for rising home prices, average days on market and so forth.

Today, the group that gets the most benefit from data is the home seller group.

Published Thursday, a government report showed that Housing Starts fell 11 percent nationwide in March and also fell short of analyst expectations. A “Housing Start” is a new housing unit on which construction has started.

The press is calling this a stumbling block for the economy, but that’s not exactly true.

Fewer Housing Starts last month means that fewer new homes will come on the market later this year. This is not necessarily bad news. Especially if you’re planning to sell your home in the latter half of the year. With fewer homes for sale, the supply-and-demand curve should shift in favor of home sellers. This helps stabilize home prices at a time when they might otherwise be prone to fall.

If it’s true that stable housing markets are key in an economic recovery, then fewer Housing Starts is actually a push in the right direction.

But there’s more to the story (as always).

As footnoted in the Commerce Department’s report, a statistical disclaimer states that the Housing Starts data’s Margin of Error was so high that the report’s conclusion is just a guess. Technically, the entire report is invalid anyway

So, the government won’t issue its final March 2009 Housing Starts data for months, but if the initial figures stick, home sellers may be in position to command higher sale prices later this year to the detriment of home buyers. It’s basic economics.

And from a home seller’s perspective, that news is good.

The 3 States That Accounted For Half Of The March 2009 Foreclosures

Since 2007, foreclosures have dominated real estate news. You can’t turn on the news or open a paper without some foreclosure-related story.

But for all of the discussion, foreclosures continue to be geographically concentrated.

Adding up the latest stats from RealtyTrac.com, more than half of the country’s foreclosure actions from March occurred in just 3 states — California, Florida and Nevada.

Those 3 states represent just 19 percent of the nation’s population.

Despite the local concentration of foreclosures, however, they remain a national problem. This is because mortgage lenders lend in all 50 states — not just 3 of them — so the impact of mortgage defaults in one region can quickly spread to others.

In part because of foreclosures are higher, the following has happened:

• Mortgage guidelines have tightened
• Downpayment requirements have increased
• Private mortgage insurance has become more expensive

That’s an important set of changes for a would-be borrower. In some cases, it can keep a person from qualifying.

Search the March 2009 foreclosure report for yourself on RealtyTrac.com’s website.

10 Oddball Tax Deductions That The IRS Actually Allows

It’s Tax Day today and who among us doesn’t love a legitimate tax deduction?

The IRS expects to process 138 million tax returns this year and accompanying those returns will be a melange of tax deduction requests.

Most will be run-of-the-mill including such staples as mortgage interest, vehicle mileage, and child care deductions. Others, however, will be less ordinary.

On its website, TurboTax pays homage to some of the most off-the-wall, offbeat tax deductions through the years permitted by the IRS.

Among the “weirdest deductions allowed“:

• A bodybuilder’s body oil so his mustles would glisten in competition
• A private airplane for owners of investment properties
• Landscaping for a sole proprietor that meets clients at home
• A swimming pool for a man with emphysema

Tax deductions are prized by U.S. taxpayers. Hopefully, your 2008 tax returns included some good ones, too.

A Few Reasons Why Now May Be The Least Expensive And Easiest Time To “Go FHA”

Shopping for low mortgage rates is a game of luck.

Some days, mortgage rates are favorable. Other days, they’re not. And while you can sometimes make an educated guess about where rates might be headed, you’re not always going to guess right.

Even the experts get it wrong more often than they’d like.

But some parts of the rate shopping process can be predicted and one of them is the future of mortgage guidelines.

In general, the more often homeowners default on their respective mortgages, the harder it is for future mortgage applicants to be approved.

This is why “now” may be the best time to apply for a FHA mortgage. Defaults are climbing, suggesting that FHA underwriting guidelines are about to tighten.

Indeed, the FHA has implemented two major changes since last summer:

1. The minimum downpayment requirement was raised by a half-percent to 3.5%
2. Cash out refinances are now limited to 85 percent, down from 95 percent.

These changes create barriers to entry for potential FHA borrowers, improving the overall quality of the FHA loan pool.

For a taxpayer-funded agency like FHA, loan performance is an important goal. Therefore, as the number of defaults grows, expect FHA guideline to get tighter.

The problem is, though, we can’t predict just where the FHA will tighten. Maybe the FHA raises its minimum FICO score requirement, or maybe it gets tough on seller-paid closing costs. A hike in loan fees isn’t out of the question, either — that’s the path Fannie Mae took, after all.

Whatever the FHA does, fewer people will qualify for FHA mortgages once it’s done. So, if you’re planning to buy a home and your downpayment is limited, or your credit scores are suspect, or there’s some other “red flag” in your profile, consider moving up your timeframe to act.

Mortgage rates may rise or mortgage rates may fall, but neither is going to matter if you can’t get qualified for a home loan. And, for FHA mortgage applicants, tougher mortgage guidelines are only a matter of time.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week: April 13, 2009

For the second week in a row, mortgage markets started the week strong and then ended with a fizzle. In the holiday-shortened week, rates were exactly flat overall.

There wasn’t much economic data to move rates last week, incidentally. The market’s up-and-down action was largely based on two events:

1) A reputable analyst said banking-sector optimism may be premature
2) Wells Fargo reported a record $3 billion in first quarter earnings

It was the first item that dropped rates Monday and Tuesday; the second item, in part, led them back up.

This week, data returns.

Tuesday, we’ll get a look at Retail Sales. Because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, a lower-than-expected figure for Retail Sales would dampen Wall Street’s current optimism for the U.S. and that would likely lead mortgage rates lower.

Next, on Wednesday, the government will release a closely-watched “cost of living” measurement called the Consumer Price Index. At its roots, CPI is an inflation gauge for the economy so — because inflation is bad for mortgage rates — a higher-than-expected CPI number is expected to push mortgage rates higher.

Then, on Thursday, Housing Starts is released.

Housing Starts measures the number of new homes on which the nation’s builders broke ground last month. If starts are up, it may mean that builders are optimistic for housing — a good sign for the economy. However, if starts are down, it should help reduce housing inventory over the next few months — also a good sign for the economy.

Meanwhile, 3 of the country’s biggest financial firms — Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup– are due to release first quarter earnings this week. If the filings show strength like Wells Fargo’s did, expect mortgage rates to rise like that did after the Wells Fargo report. What’s good for stocks right now may prove to be bad for mortgage rates.

Goldman Sachs reports on Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase on Thursday and Citigroup on Friday.

(Image Courtesy: Wall Street Journal Online)

Weekly Economic Releases for Apr. 12th

The week ahead has plenty in store for the financial markets as traders and investors get back in the swing of things from an extended holiday weekend.

Beyond the standard economic reports being released, earnings reports season is in full effect. Investors are anxious to see how the profits and oprerating margins for financial institutions, consumer driven companies and commodity prices. It should be no surprise on down side as wall street has been banging on that drum for a while.

Consumers have to be cautious if earnings are a surprise to the upside. As we have seen the tug of war between the stock market and mortgage bonds for investor dollars, continued improvement in the stock market translates to higher cost of borrowing (higher mortgage rates).

Here is the list of economic reports for this week. Need help understanding the impact of these reports. Contact us. We would be happy to explain.

How To Know If Your Adjustable Rate Mortgage Will Adjust Lower

When conforming mortgages adjust, they’re often tied to an interest rate index called LIBOR.

LIBOR is an acronym for London Interbank Offered Rate. But what LIBOR stands for isn’t as important as the role it plays.

LIBOR is an interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other. Therefore, when banks feel the banking system as a whole is unsafe, LIBOR rises to compensate.

It’s why LIBOR spiked last October after Lehman Brothers failed. Financial institutions wondered what other institutions would fail and that added risk to the system.

Since October, however, and because of massive government interventions worldwide, LIBOR has been on a steady retreat. Moreover, with close to $30 billion in conforming mortgages scheduled to adjust by Labor Day, the timing couldn’t be better for homeowners with conforming ARMs.

Typically, a Fannie Mae- or Freddie Mac-backed mortgage adjusts once annually. The adjusted interest rate is always equal to some constant — usually 2.250 percent — plus the rate of LIBOR on the date of adjustment.

As a math formula, the ARM formula might look like this:

New Mortgage Rate = LIBOR + 2.250 percent

In October, when LIBOR was above 4 percent, a homeowner’s ARM may have adjusted to 6 1/2 percent. Today, that same ARM would move to four-and-a-quarter.

As a strategy play, it might make sense to let your ARM adjust because the rate will remain low, but with fixed rate mortgages hovering near 5 percent, locking up a long-term rate may be smart, too.

Talk to your mortgage planner to review all of your choices.

April 15 Is 1 Week Away And 27 Million Taxpayers Have Yet To File. If You’re One Of Them, Here’s Some Tax Tips

There are 138 million taxpayers in the United States and, according to the IRS, 20 percent of them file their taxes within 7 days of April 15. In a holiday-shortened week, that means that 27 million people had better get a move on.

And while a portion of this year’s last-minute filers will file with storefront operations like Liberty Tax Service or H&R Block, many others will self-prepare with the help of tax software from TurboTax or TaxCut.

If you’re a member of the do-it-yourself crowd, consider taking a review of this year’s tax law changes before starting your returns. The stimulus package signed into law this past February made a profound impact on tax liability and the list of changes may be helpful for you.

A few of the new, allowable income tax deductions for 2008 include:

• Mortgage debt forgiveness in the event of a short sale
• An additional standard deduction on real estate taxes paid
• $8,000 tax credit for homes bought since January 1, 2009

TurboTax offers 4 tax filing choices online, ranging in price from $100 to free. If you’re among the 27 million yet to file, choose whichever program fits best — just choose it before April 15.

Filing could take several hours. Plan accordingly.

How To Know If You’re Eligible For A Making Home Affordable Refinance

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