February 2009

Key Economic Reports for Week of Mar. 2nd

The week ahead has key economic reports to be released every day of the week. The week will start on Monday with the release of Personal Income & Outlays for January and end on Friday with the February’s Employmet Numbers. Check out the rest of the week below.

If you would like to know more on how the aforementioned economic reports could impact your next purchase/refinance loan, please contact us and speak with a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) today.

What are the Country’s Best Affordable Suburbs?

Nationwide, home affordability has received a serious boost from the combination of falling home prices and falling mortgage rates.

Today, because of the sagging economy, in most parts of the country, the cost of owning a home versus renting one is now very close to its historical average.

That said, though, near every major city, there are some neighborhoods in which home affordability and quality of life are stand-out. Using real estate data from OnBoard Informatics, Business Week highlights these areas in a report it calls the “Best Affordable Suburbs“.

Now, the country’s “Best Affordable Suburbs” doesn’t list the nation’s most affordable suburbs, but instead, a group of cities, towns, and villages in which the populace sits between five and sixty-thousand, and the economy, the schools, the lifestyle and the crime levels are all within a desirable range.

As concluded by Business Week, these are areas in which buying a home is a good value.
At the top of the list is Awake, Wisconsin, a suburb 20 minutes west of Milwaukee, prized for its outdoor lifestyle and healthy jobs market. The complete 50-state listing is posted at Business Week’s website.

Obama Unveils Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan

President Obama unveiled his plan to help stabilize the housing market and keep millions of borrowers in their homes.

The Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan includes two initiatives to help struggling homeowners. One is a refinancing program for homeowners with less than 20% equity in their homes, or who owe more than their home is worth. The second program attempts to lower monthly payments for homeowners at risk of losing their home. In addition, the plan includes a third initiative to support low mortgage rates by strengthening confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Many of the plan’s details are still being worked out and will not be announced until March 4, here is an overview of the plan’s main components.

Refinancing Initiative
Under current rules, those families who own less than 20% equity in their homes have a difficult time refinancing and taking advantage of the historically low interest rates. Therefore, the refinancing initiative in the new plan provides refinancing help for homeowners with less than 20% equity in their homes or who owe more than their home is worth. This initiative is open to homeowners who have conforming loans which are guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and who owe up to 5% more than their home is worth.

According to the plan, “credit-worthy” or “responsible” homeowners can refinance their mortgage into a 30- or 15-year, fixed-rate loan based on current market rates. The refinanced loan, however, cannot include prepayment penalties or balloon payments. For many families, this low-cost refinancing may help reduce their mortgage payments by up to thousands of dollars per year.

As with the rest of the plan, details about this initiative will be released at a future date—including what, if any, credit score requirements will be included.

Stability Initiative
This initiative aims at providing help to individual families as well as entire neighborhoods by helping reduce foreclosures and stabilize home prices. It is intended to help homeowners who are struggling to afford their mortgage payments, but cannot sell their homes because prices have fallen significantly.

The goal of this initiative is simple: “reduce the amount homeowners owe per month to sustainable levels.” To accomplish this, lenders are encouraged to lower homeowners’ payments to 31 percent of their income by lowering their interest rate to as low as 2% or by extending the terms of the loan. In addition, lenders can also lower the principal owed by the borrower, with Treasury sharing in the costs.

Homeowners who are current on their mortgages but are struggling can still apply for this program. As such, this is one of the few programs designed to help homeowners who may face delinquency soon, but are current at the moment.

Since the focus of this initiative is on helping families and neighborhoods, investment properties do not qualify. This initiative also includes a number of additional elements and incentives that benefit homeowners and lenders alike, including:

• Incentives to Help Borrowers Stay Current: To provide an extra incentive for borrowers to keep paying on time, the initiative will provide a monthly balance reduction payment that goes straight towards reducing the principal balance of the mortgage loan. As long as a borrower stays current on his or her loan, he or she can get up to $1,000 each year for five years.
• Reaching Borrowers Early: To keep lenders focused on reaching borrowers who are trying their best to stay current on their mortgages, an incentive payment of $500 will be paid to servicers, and an incentive payment of $1,500 will be paid to mortgage holders, if they modify at-risk loans before the borrower falls behind.

Supporting Low Mortgage Rates
As part of the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, the Treasury Department is increasing its funding commitment to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure the strength and security of the mortgage market and to help maintain mortgage affordability. This portion of the plan will use using funds already authorized in 2008 by Congress for this purpose.

The increased funding will enable Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to carry out ambitious efforts to ensure mortgage affordability for responsible homeowners, and provide forward-looking confidence in the mortgage market.

Again, the government plans to unveil the final details of the plan on March 4, 2009. For now, you can download a sheet of common Questions and Answers produced by the government at: www.treas.gov/initiatives/eesa/homeowner-affordability-plan/ConsumerQA.pdf

I will continue monitoring the plan as new information becomes available. If you have any questions or would like to discuss how this may specifically impact you, I’d be happy to sit down with you. Just call or email me to set up an appointment.

The Key Fact Missing from Today’s Existing Home Sales Headlines

In reading the headlines this morning, you’d think that last month’s Existing Home Sales figure signaled more trouble ahead for the housing market.

Quite the contrary.

Beyond the attention-grabbing headlines is the real story; the one that shows — once again — that housing market fundaments are coming back into balance.

As home values tick lower, it appears, value buyers are stepping in and snapping up supply. It’s true that the number of homes sold fell to its lowest levels in 12 years, but we can’t ignore the fact that the number of homes available to buy fell, too.

• Banks have put the brakes on foreclosures
• Economic uncertainty is reducing job-related relocations
• Builders have all but stopped building new homes

The national housing supply is as low as it’s been in more than a year.

Based on the current rate of sales activity, the national housing supply would be 100% sold in 9.6 months — a two-month improvement from the high point set in June 2008.

Demand for homes is expected to rise, too:

• The Federal Reserve is trying to hold mortgage rates low
• Fannie Mae is opening its checkbook to real estate investors
• The stimulus package is granting tax credits to first-timers

So, it’s not that the headlines are wrong; it’s just that they’re incomplete.

In looking at all of the data and not just one sliver of it, we can find hope. Falling supply plus rising demand leads home values higher and that’s the basis for a recovery.

(Image courtesy: Wall Street Journal Online)

The Relative Cost of Owning versus Renting Is Back at Historical Norms

One popular housing theory is that — before a bona fide housing recovery can begin — the cost of owning a home versus renting one must return to historical levels.

If that belief is a truth, a national return to rising home prices may be in store for 2009.

Falling home prices coupled with falling mortgage rates, too, have dropped the relative, after-tax cost of owning a home to 125% of the cost of renting a home.

This is the exact 18-year historical average and not since 2001 has the gap been this small.

As reported by the Wall Street Journal, though, the study has some flaws. For example, the data doesn’t account for ongoing home maintenance costs, nor does it consider real estate tax bills and insurance policies.

But, combining a relatively low cost of ownership with the government’s $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers is likely to convert long-time renters into never-before homeowners.

This, too, is thought to be a key element of the housing recovery.

In many markets (but not all), home prices are expected to edge lower through 2009. Provided mortgage rates stay low, the cost gap between owning and renting will shrink even more.

(Image courtesy: Wall Street Journal)

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County-by-County: The 2009 "High-Cost" Conforming Loan Limits

As part of the stimulus package passed last week, Congress authorized a temporary increase to conforming loan limits in certain high-cost parts of the country.

“High cost” is defined by a regions’ median sales price.

With the temporary increase, a greater share of Americans can now qualify for Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-backed loans, usually the least expensive source for mortgage money.

Higher loan limits can be good for the housing market and the broader economy for two reasons:

1. Cheaper money can spur new home demand, supporting home values.
2. Higher loan limits render more homeowners refinance-eligible, freeing up cash for spending, saving, or investing.

The complete county-by-county loan limit list is available on the OFHEO website.

Of the 3,232 U.S. counties, 10 percent are considered “high-cost”. Residents of these areas can expect the same low rates offered to the rest of the country, but with a slight premium. Be sure to ask your qualified mortgage planner about how it works.

What’s Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week: February 23, 2009

Traders brushed off Tuesday and Wednesday’s passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and the President’s mortgage relief plan, respectively.

It showed how unsure markets remain about the stimulus package and its probable impact on the economy.

As a result, mortgage markets worsened last week, albeit slightly. It marked the 4th week out of five in which mortgage rates rose.

However, there were a few notable new items for American homeowners and home buyers last week:

1. The signed-into-law stimulus package includes a first-time home buyer tax credit
2. Additional banks joined the “no foreclosure” movement
3. Fannie Mae re-opened guidelines so that real estate investors can own and finance 10 properties, up from 4

Taken separately, these points aren’t especially noteworthy. Together, however, they’re very important.

In reducing the number of homes for sale while, in turn, spurring demand for them, last week’s policy shifts should provide key support against falling home values nationwide. More buyers competing for fewer homes tend to make prices go up, after all.

This week, we’ll see if buyers are responding. Two housing-related data points are released.

On Wednesday, it’s January’s Existing Homes Sales report. After soaring 6-plus percent in December, economists expect another big increase. This makes sense because falling prices make homes more affordable and banks are getting more efficient with selling foreclosed properties.

Then, on Thursday, the New Home Sales report hits the wires. It’s expected to show little or no change.

As for mortgage rates, expect the same unpredictability we’ve seen since the start of the year. As Wall Street comes to terms with the various stimulus plans and the fate of our nation’s largest financial companies, money will flow in and out of securities markets with fluidity and speed and that includes mortgage-backed bonds.

Rates should carve out a wide range this week. If you’re not currently floating, consider locking in to avoid the risk of higher monthly payments.

(Image courtesy: Wall Street Journal)

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